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MP vs UAMY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MP Materials Corp. (MP) vs. United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MP is a vertically integrated rare earth producer scaling magnet manufacturing, while UAMY is a smaller critical-minerals company focused on antimony and zeolite.
- MP reported record neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production and a return to profitability in its most recent quarter, supported by a government price floor.
- UAMY grew sales volumes but was hit by a sharp decline in antimony prices, prompting a cut to its full-year revenue guidance.
- Both names are leveraged to U.S. onshoring and defense-related supply chains, but they differ markedly in scale, financial strength, and valuation.
- Relative performance diverged recently: MP pulled back from elevated valuation levels, while UAMY faced a sentiment reset after disappointing results.
Introduction
Investors tracking the critical-minerals theme frequently weigh MP against UAMY, two U.S.-listed companies tied to government efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. Although both operate in the broad materials sector, they differ substantially in commodity focus, business model, and maturity. This stock comparison examines their recent performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles to help traders and investors understand how these two names are positioned in the current market environment.
MP Overview and Recent Performance
MP (MP Materials Corp.) operates the Mountain Pass mine in California and is building a vertically integrated rare earth supply chain, from mining and separation through to magnet manufacturing. The company has secured long-term agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense, General Motors, and Apple, and benefits from a price protection agreement (PPA) that effectively sets a floor on certain NdPr products.
In its most recent quarterly report, MP posted revenue of roughly $90.7 million, up about 49% year over year, with consolidated revenue and PPA income reaching approximately $132.9 million. Record NdPr production of 917 metric tons and a return to adjusted profitability reflected the ramp-up of its downstream operations. Despite these operational gains, the stock has pulled back in recent weeks after an exceptional run in 2025, as a lofty valuation, cooling commodity-related sentiment, and insider selling weighed on the shares.
UAMY Overview and Recent Performance
UAMY (United States Antimony Corporation) produces antimony, a critical mineral used in defense applications and flame retardants, along with zeolite products used in applications such as animal nutrition. The company is a key domestic supplier under a multi-year contract with the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and has been expanding capacity at its Thompson Falls and Radersburg facilities.
Recent market activity has been challenging for UAMY. In its latest quarter, revenue declined about 25% year over year to roughly $7.9 million, even as antimony volumes sold rose 26%. The decline reflected a sharp drop in average selling prices, which fell roughly 52% year over year, compressing gross margin to about 7%. Management lowered its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $60 million to $75 million from a prior $125 million target. The stock sold off notably following these results, although the company maintains a strong liquidity position of more than $60 million in cash and U.S. Treasuries.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast between these two stocks is scale and financial maturity. MP generates quarterly revenue several times larger than UAMY's, holds roughly $1.7 billion in cash and short-term investments, and is transitioning from an upstream mining operator into a downstream magnet manufacturer. UAMY, by comparison, is earlier in its expansion and carries significantly lower revenue, though it also operates with minimal debt and a robust cash buffer relative to its size.
Growth drivers also differ. MP's catalysts center on scaling NdPr and magnet output, commissioning heavy rare earth separation, and executing its "10X" magnet facility. UAMY's catalysts hinge on government contract deliveries, capacity expansion, and a potential recovery in antimony pricing. On the risk side, MP faces execution risk around new facilities and an elevated sales multiple, while UAMY is more exposed to commodity-price volatility and the timing of contract revenue recognition. Sector exposure is broadly similar—both benefit from U.S. critical-minerals policy—but market sentiment has diverged, with MP consolidating after a strong rally and UAMY resetting after lowered guidance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, financial stability, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely currently favor MP over UAMY. MP's return to profitability, record production, contracted demand, and government price support provide a comparatively more stable fundamental backdrop, even as its valuation remains elevated. UAMY's strong liquidity and strategic government contracts are notable strengths, but lower pricing, compressed margins, and reduced guidance introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment reflects a probabilistic evaluation of relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MP is a Hold and UAMY is a StrongBuy.
MP's RSI Indicator slumps into oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for MP moved into overbought territory on October 22, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MP advanced for three days, in 226 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
MP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
MP moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for MP entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.594) is normal, around the industry mean (7.719). MP's P/E Ratio (-119.697) is considerably lower than the industry average of (-0.087). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.026). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.015) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (28.409) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
UAMY sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 21, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for UAMY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 63 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 52 of the 63 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAMY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UAMY just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where UAMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +6.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAMY advanced for three days, in 206 of 259 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
UAMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for UAMY entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UAMY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. UAMY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.720) is normal, around the industry mean (7.719). P/E Ratio (-25.308) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.087). UAMY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.440) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.026). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.015) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.241) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
MP | UAMY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 93 | 88 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 92 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MP's Valuation (21) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for UAMY (98) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MP’s stock grew significantly faster than UAMY’s over the last 12 months.
UAMY's Profit vs Risk Rating (88) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MP (93) in the null industry. This means that UAMY’s stock grew similarly to MP’s over the last 12 months.
MP's SMR Rating (92) in the null industry is in the same range as UAMY (94) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MP’s stock grew similarly to UAMY’s over the last 12 months.
MP's Price Growth Rating (81) in the null industry is in the same range as UAMY (92) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MP’s stock grew similarly to UAMY’s over the last 12 months.
UAMY's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MP (25) in the null industry. This means that UAMY’s stock grew similarly to MP’s over the last 12 months.
| MP | UAMY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 85% | 8 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UAMY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UAMY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAMY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UAMY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
MP (@Other Metals/Minerals) experienced а -7.33% price change this week, while UAMY (@Other Metals/Minerals) price change was +11.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Metals/Minerals industry was -8.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -29.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was -42.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
MP is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
UAMY is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Metals/Minerals (-8.11% weekly)The category includes companies that explore for, mine and extract metals, such as copper, diamonds, nickel, cobalt ore, lead, zinc and uranium. BHP, Rio Tinto and Southern Copper Corporation are major players in this space.
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