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Is there such a thing as the “NFL effect?”

Is there such a thing as the “NFL effect?”

The “NFL Effect” suggests that the outcome of the Super Bowl can foretell market behavior.

Some market statisticians have analyzed the correlation between the behavior of the stock market and the winner of the Super Bowl, and suggest that the DJIA will go up or down depending on whether the winner was from the AFC conference or the NFC conference.

While the Super Bowl indicator has been right 33 times out of 41, to serious investors, this correlation does not imply causality. You can find lots of other time-series which are also strongly correlated to the stock market performance, such as the number of sunny days in the previous year.

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Keywords: superstition, null hypothesis, market timing, National Football League (NFL), market psychology,