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Jan 01, 2019
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2018 the Worst Year for Oil Since 2015

2018 the Worst Year for Oil Since 2015

At the start of 2018, Wall Street had predicted that oil prices would surpass the $100 mark in 2018 – for the first time in four years. But the opposite happened -- oil prices experienced the worst annual loss since 2015.  

U.S. Brent crude ended the year after tumbling by ~25%, while international benchmark Brent crude ended the year after falling by ~20% in 2018. U.S. crude settled on Monday at $45.41 a barrel and international benchmark Brent crude stood at around $54 a barrel. The declines mark the first annual loss and the biggest yearly drop since 2015, when both contracts fell more than 30%. 

So, what went wrong for oil?

First, following the Trump administration’s restored sanctions on Iran, fear of a supply shortage resulted into OPEC members and its allies led by Russia abandoning their 2016 agreement to restrict supply, adding about 1 million barrels per day between June and November.

Second, forecasts of a weaker than expected demand growth for oil resulted into broad stock market sell-off as investors dumped riskier assets. Sell-offs in some of the high-flying technology names, the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and rising interest rates acted as a catalyst and oil plunged about $11 a barrel from its October 3 high.

Third, snapping back of the sanctions just a day after being imposed made things worse. It meant OPEC members and its allies had already pumped in more oil into the system while demand growth was moderating and fewer Iranian barrels than expected were lost. Meanwhile, America as the world's biggest oil producer in the second half of 2018, acted as a supply catalyst and further dampened the chances of recovery.

Related Ticker: IYE

IYE in +2.37% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where IYE advanced for three days, in 338 of 372 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

IYE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 296 of 333 cases where IYE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for IYE moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 40 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 61 of 71 cases where IYE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IYE as a result. In 78 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IYE turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.

IYE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), MARATHON PETROLEUM Corp (NYSE:MPC), Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), SLB Limited (NYSE:SLB), Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI), Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 1000 Energy RIC 22.5/45 Capped Index composed of U.S. equities in the energy sector. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of the energy sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) ETF is 77.84B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 2.98B to 738.79B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 738.79B. The lowest valued company is XE at 2.98B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) ETF was 23%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 41%, and the average quarterly price growth was 78%. NXT experienced the highest price growth at 19%, while USD experienced the biggest fall at -14%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) ETF was -2%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 26% and the average quarterly volume growth was -29%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 70
P/E Growth Rating: 38
Price Growth Rating: 35
SMR Rating: 56
Profit Risk Rating: 34
Seasonality Score: -55 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

Category Energy

Category
Equity Energy
Address
iShares Trust400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
415-670-2000
Web
www.ishares.com
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