2018 the Worst Year for Oil Since 2015
At the start of 2018, Wall Street had predicted that oil prices would surpass the $100 mark in 2018 – for the first time in four years. But the opposite happened -- oil prices experienced the worst annual loss since 2015.
U.S. Brent crude ended the year after tumbling by ~25%, while international benchmark Brent crude ended the year after falling by ~20% in 2018. U.S. crude settled on Monday at $45.41 a barrel and international benchmark Brent crude stood at around $54 a barrel. The declines mark the first annual loss and the biggest yearly drop since 2015, when both contracts fell more than 30%.
So, what went wrong for oil?
First, following the Trump administration’s restored sanctions on Iran, fear of a supply shortage resulted into OPEC members and its allies led by Russia abandoning their 2016 agreement to restrict supply, adding about 1 million barrels per day between June and November.
Second, forecasts of a weaker than expected demand growth for oil resulted into broad stock market sell-off as investors dumped riskier assets. Sell-offs in some of the high-flying technology names, the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and rising interest rates acted as a catalyst and oil plunged about $11 a barrel from its October 3 high.
Third, snapping back of the sanctions just a day after being imposed made things worse. It meant OPEC members and its allies had already pumped in more oil into the system while demand growth was moderating and fewer Iranian barrels than expected were lost. Meanwhile, America as the world's biggest oil producer in the second half of 2018, acted as a supply catalyst and further dampened the chances of recovery.
IYE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IYE turned positive on June 06, 2025. Looking at past instances where IYE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 05, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IYE as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
IYE moved above its 50-day moving average on June 06, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IYE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 09, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IYE advanced for three days, in of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 290 cases where IYE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IYE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
IYE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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