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Jan 01, 2019
2018 the Worst Year for Oil Since 2015

2018 the Worst Year for Oil Since 2015

At the start of 2018, Wall Street had predicted that oil prices would surpass the $100 mark in 2018 – for the first time in four years. But the opposite happened -- oil prices experienced the worst annual loss since 2015.  

U.S. Brent crude ended the year after tumbling by ~25%, while international benchmark Brent crude ended the year after falling by ~20% in 2018. U.S. crude settled on Monday at $45.41 a barrel and international benchmark Brent crude stood at around $54 a barrel. The declines mark the first annual loss and the biggest yearly drop since 2015, when both contracts fell more than 30%. 

So, what went wrong for oil?

First, following the Trump administration’s restored sanctions on Iran, fear of a supply shortage resulted into OPEC members and its allies led by Russia abandoning their 2016 agreement to restrict supply, adding about 1 million barrels per day between June and November.

Second, forecasts of a weaker than expected demand growth for oil resulted into broad stock market sell-off as investors dumped riskier assets. Sell-offs in some of the high-flying technology names, the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and rising interest rates acted as a catalyst and oil plunged about $11 a barrel from its October 3 high.

Third, snapping back of the sanctions just a day after being imposed made things worse. It meant OPEC members and its allies had already pumped in more oil into the system while demand growth was moderating and fewer Iranian barrels than expected were lost. Meanwhile, America as the world's biggest oil producer in the second half of 2018, acted as a supply catalyst and further dampened the chances of recovery.

Related Ticker: IYE

IYE in +1.79% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on September 02, 2026

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where IYE advanced for three days, in of 379 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IYE as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IYE just turned positive on September 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where IYE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 334 cases where IYE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for IYE moved out of overbought territory on September 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IYE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

IYE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), MARATHON PETROLEUM Corp (NYSE:MPC), Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), SLB Limited (NYSE:SLB), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI), Targa Resources Corp (NYSE:TRGP).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 1000 Energy RIC 22.5/45 Capped Index composed of U.S. equities in the energy sector. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of the energy sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the iShares US Energy ETF ETF is 66.53B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 79.25M to 666.99B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 666.99B. The lowest valued company is NFE at 79.25M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the iShares US Energy ETF ETF was 78%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 71%, and the average quarterly price growth was 90%. DINO experienced the highest price growth at 9%, while NFE experienced the biggest fall at -9%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the iShares US Energy ETF ETF was 5%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -5% and the average quarterly volume growth was 27%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 48
P/E Growth Rating: 43
Price Growth Rating: 38
SMR Rating: 63
Profit Risk Rating: 34
Seasonality Score: 51 (-100 ... +100)
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Exxon Mobil is a global energy giant with roughly 324 billion dollars in trailing revenue, around 29 billion dollars in earnings, record production near 4.7 million barrels per day, and a long runway of projects in Guyana, the Permian, LNG and carbon capture. The Iran war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and could keep a 10–20 dollar‑per‑barrel risk premium in crude if tensions stay high, which would generally be positive for XOM’s upstream earnings and refining margins.
Chevron is a global integrated oil and gas major with growing production, a strong balance sheet, and significant exposure to long‑life projects in the Permian, LNG, and Venezuela, aiming for structurally higher cash flows through 2026 and beyond. The Iran war has increased the probability of supply disruptions or perceived risk in the Gulf, and several analysts warn that Brent could move above 100 dollars per barrel if Hormuz traffic is impaired, which would generally be supportive for Chevron’s earnings and free cash flow.
Shell is a diversified global major with roughly 266.9 billion dollars in trailing revenue, 17.8 billion dollars in earnings, a 3.5% dividend yield, and an active buyback program, trading at about 13 times earnings near its 52‑week high. The Iran war materially raises the risk of disruptions or perceived threats around the Strait of Hormuz, which could push oil well above 80–100 dollars per barrel and tighten LNG markets, a setup that is generally supportive for Shell’s upstream and LNG businesses.
LMT is a defense heavyweight with roughly 75 billion dollars in annual revenue, about 5 billion dollars in earnings, and a backlog above 190 billion dollars spanning fighters, missiles, space, and sustainment contracts that support long‑term cash flow. The U.S.–Iran war has triggered a classic “flight to defense,” with sector ETFs and names like Lockheed rallying as investors price in higher defense spending, missile restocking, and elevated geopolitical risk for years to come.
NOC is a defense heavyweight with about 42 billion dollars in annual revenue, 4.18 billion dollars in earnings, and key growth programs in the B‑21 bomber, Sentinel ICBM, missile defense, and space, which are all strategically prioritized in U.S. and allied budgets. The Iran war has reinforced a rotation into defense stocks as investors expect elevated military spending, ammunition and missile restocking, and sustained demand for advanced systems, and commentary specifically cites Northrop as a likely beneficiary.
RTX is a broad aerospace and defense leader with about 88.6 billion dollars in 2025 revenue, 6.73 billion dollars in earnings, and a 268 billion dollar backlog spanning commercial and defense programs that support multi‑year growth. Management guides to 92–93 billion dollars in 2026 sales, adjusted EPS of 6.60–6.80, and free cash flow of 8.25–8.75 billion dollars, with analysts expecting roughly 6% EPS growth to around 6.67 dollars in 2026.
Delta is the most profitable major U.S. airline, with 2025 operating revenue of 58.3 billion dollars, adjusted EPS of 5.82 dollars, 12% ROIC, and manageable leverage, and it is guiding to 2026 EPS of 6.50–7.50 dollars and 3–4 billion dollars of free cash flow. The Iran war is pushing oil and jet fuel prices higher, with jet fuel benchmarks up about 22% this year amid fears over flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and long‑haul routes across the region are being rerouted, raising costs and causing disruptions.
GD produces business jets, combat vehicles, IT and mission systems, and submarines, with 2025 revenue of 52.55 billion dollars, net income of 4.21 billion dollars, EPS of 15.45, and a sizable backlog near 118 billion dollars that underpins future growth.​ The Iran war has boosted interest in defense stocks; sector ETFs are up double digits this year and analysts emphasize that long‑duration maintenance and modernization contracts can support cash flows even after the conflict cools.
HII is the dominant U.S. Navy shipbuilder, focused on aircraft carriers, submarines, and other major naval vessels, with about 12.0 billion dollars in trailing revenue, 569 million dollars in net income, and EPS of 14.50. The Iran war and threats around the Strait of Hormuz highlight the importance of naval and missile-defense capabilities; reports show interceptor stocks being depleted and stress that keeping sea lanes open will likely require sustained naval investment where HII is a key contractor.
United is a large global carrier with a premium‑focused “United Next” strategy that upgauges to larger, more fuel‑efficient aircraft and adds premium seats to improve margins over the next several years. The Iran war has forced widespread Middle East airspace closures, creating thousands of cancellations, diversions, longer flight times, and higher fuel burn; analysts warn of higher fares and air‑freight rates if the conflict persists.
GE Aerospace is a focused aviation and defense company with two major segments—commercial engines and services, and defense and propulsion—earning most of its profits from long‑duration engine service on an installed base near 80,000 engines. Revenue and earnings growth have been strong, with recent quarterly revenue above 11 billion dollars, up high‑teens year over year, and net income over 2 billion dollars; management guides to 2026 EPS of 7.10–7.40 dollars, well above this year’s roughly 5.4‑dollar consensus.
Shares of Citigroup (C) declined approximately 5.17% in the most recent completed trading session, closing at $110.19 versus a prior close of $116.19. The primary catalyst was hotter-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, stoking fears of persistent inflation and a reduced likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
AVAV surged +16.83% in Monday's session, trading at $294.70 compared to Friday's closing price of $252.25 — a gain of $42.45 per share. The primary catalyst was a powerful confluence of geopolitical demand and corporate developments: the escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict dramatically amplified investor focus on AeroVironment's loitering munitions portfolio.
Shares of Venture Global surged approximately +16.61% on March 2, 2026, closing at $11.30 compared to the prior close of $9.69. The primary catalyst was a stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 earnings report, with GAAP EPS of $0.41 beating the consensus estimate of $0.36 by $0.05.
Shares of CCL plunged 10.11% in Monday's session, falling from a prior close of $31.55 to $28.36. The primary catalyst was a coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strike on Iran over the weekend, causing crude oil prices to surge approximately 8–9% and triggering a global risk-off selloff.
ADT shares dropped sharply — falling as much as 13.4% intraday and hitting a new 52-week low of $6.65 — after reporting Q4 2025 results before the Monday open. Fourth-quarter revenue and guidance both missed analyst expectations, overshadowing an earnings-per-share beat.
Shares of Karman Holdings surged approximately +13.00% in Monday's session, closing near $99.57, up from a prior close of $88.11. The primary catalyst was the release of the company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, which showed strong revenue growth and exceeded top-line expectations.
Netflix dropped out of a months‑long bidding war for Warner Bros Discovery after Paramount/Skydance raised their offer, and Netflix refused to match it, saying the new price was “no longer financially appealing.” The stock jumped roughly 10%+ on the news as investors read this as fiscal discipline—management chose not to overpay, which protects the balance sheet and future returns instead of chasing scale at any price.
SE shares plunged approximately 23% at Tuesday's open, marking one of the steepest single-session selloffs in recent company history. The primary catalyst was a severe Q4 2025 earnings miss: adjusted EPS of $0.63 fell well short of the analyst consensus of $0.80, a miss of roughly 21%.
Shares of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) are down 10.32% in Tuesday's session, trading at $196.27 versus the prior close of $218.85 — a single-day loss of $22.58 per share. The primary catalyst is a Bank of America downgrade issued on March 2, cutting SCCO from Neutral to Underperform, which triggered accelerating sell pressure into Tuesday's open.