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published in Blogs
Jan 15, 2021

3 Smaller, Large-Cap Chip Stocks Expected to Move Higher

In the investment world the definition of a large-cap stock is any company that has a market cap over $10 billion. That leaves a lot of room between $10 billion and the $1 trillion market cap we now have for a few stocks. Combing Tickeron’s list of A.I. Trend Predictions from January 14, I couldn’t help but notice three semiconductor companies with smaller, but still large-cap, stocks that received bullish signals with high probabilities of success.

All three stocks get a “strong buy” rating from Tickeron’s scorecard and the signals all had confidence levels of 88%-89%. The three companies are ON Semiconductor (ON), Qorvo (QRVO), and Teradyne (TER). All three have market caps below $25 billion and they score very well on the fundamental and technical screener.

All three stocks get one negative score on their fundamental analysis, but it’s a different indicator in each case. Teradyne gets four positive readings from the fundamentals, Qorvo gets three positives, and ON Semiconductor gets two positive readings. The only area where all three score really well is in the Profit vs. Risk ratings. Teradyne and Qorvo both get great marks in the Price Growth Ratings.

The companies do even better on the technical analysis screener. All three stocks get four bullish signals. Teradyne doesn’t get any bearish signals while Qorvo and ON Semiconductor each get one bearish signal.

One of the more interesting observations was that the four bullish signals were the same for all three stocks. The signals came from the Aroon Indicator, the MACD indicators, the Momentum indicators, and the Moving Average indicators. The bearish signals for Qorvo and ON Semiconductor were both from the Bollinger Bands.

All three of these stocks have rallied tremendously since their March lows. ON Semiconductor is up nearly 350%, Teradyne is up over 200%, and Qorvo is up over 150%. The rallies have put all three stocks in overbought territory based on their 10-week RSIs and their weekly stochastic indicators. But as the saying goes, “overbought can always become more overbought.”

Looking at the sentiment indicators for the three stocks, something else caught my attention. The short interest ratios for both ON Semiconductor and for Teradyne are extremely high. Teradyne’s is 7.41 and ON’s is 8.04. The average short interest ratio is around 3.0. What the high short interest ratios suggest is that there is considerable bearish sentiment building toward the stocks.

From a contrarian perspective, a high short interest ratio is a good sign because it means, if the stock continues to rally, the short sellers can add buying pressure if they have to cover.

The complete comparison of the three stocks from Tickeron appears below. It shows how the stocks compare to one another and how they stack up against other stocks.

 

Related Ticker: SMH

SMH's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SMH turned positive on February 23, 2024. Looking at past instances where SMH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMH advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 338 cases where SMH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

SMH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 01, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), QUALCOMM (NASDAQ:QCOM), Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX), Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU).

Industry description

The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS® US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index includes common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. exchange-listed companies in the semiconductor industry. Such companies may include medium-capitalization companies and foreign companies that are listed on a U.S. exchange. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ETF is 276.67B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 8.27B to 2.06T. NVDA holds the highest valuation in this group at 2.06T. The lowest valued company is OLED at 8.27B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ETF was 7%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 17%, and the average quarterly price growth was 46%. AMD experienced the highest price growth at 17%, while OLED experienced the biggest fall at -0%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ETF was 52%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 17% and the average quarterly volume growth was 58%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 58
P/E Growth Rating: 25
Price Growth Rating: 17
SMR Rating: 44
Profit Risk Rating: 20
Seasonality Score: 40 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
SMHDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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SMH and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMH has been closely correlated with SOXX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 98% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SMH jumps, then SOXX could also see price increases.

1D
1W
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1D Price
Change %
SMH100%
+1.61%
SOXX - SMH
98%
Closely correlated
+0.98%
SOXQ - SMH
98%
Closely correlated
+1.08%
FTXL - SMH
94%
Closely correlated
+0.64%
PSI - SMH
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