Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) trending lower since November
The overall market recovered from the selling that hit in December and that led the S&P 500 to a new all-time high on May 1. But not all stocks and sectors have recovered fully from the December selloff. One sector that has yet to recover fully is the healthcare sector. The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV) peaked just above $90 back in November and it has yet to get back to that point.
In fact, if you connect the high from November with the highs from March and April, you can see the downward sloped trend line the ETF has formed. The fund moved above the trend line on June 11, but it was unable to close the above-said trend line.
We see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings both hit overbought readings in the past few days before turning lower. The stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 11 and in the recent past, such events were not a good sign for the fund.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine is also showing that the XLV may have a hard time in the coming days. The tool generated a bearish signal for the XLV on June 10 and the signal showed a confidence level of 70%. For the prediction to be successful, the fund will need to drop at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the XLV have been successful 84% of the time.
XLV in -1.50% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on July 29, 2025
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where XLV declined for three days, in of 296 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 25, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLV as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLV just turned positive on July 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where XLV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLV moved above its 50-day moving average on July 22, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 01, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLV advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 285 cases where XLV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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