Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) trending lower since November
The overall market recovered from the selling that hit in December and that led the S&P 500 to a new all-time high on May 1. But not all stocks and sectors have recovered fully from the December selloff. One sector that has yet to recover fully is the healthcare sector. The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV) peaked just above $90 back in November and it has yet to get back to that point.
In fact, if you connect the high from November with the highs from March and April, you can see the downward sloped trend line the ETF has formed. The fund moved above the trend line on June 11, but it was unable to close the above-said trend line.
We see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings both hit overbought readings in the past few days before turning lower. The stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 11 and in the recent past, such events were not a good sign for the fund.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine is also showing that the XLV may have a hard time in the coming days. The tool generated a bearish signal for the XLV on June 10 and the signal showed a confidence level of 70%. For the prediction to be successful, the fund will need to drop at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the XLV have been successful 84% of the time.
XLV sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for XLV moved above the 200-day moving average on July 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 25, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLV as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLV just turned positive on June 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where XLV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLV moved above its 50-day moving average on June 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLV advanced for three days, in of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 262 cases where XLV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLV moved out of overbought territory on July 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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