Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
published in Blogs
Oct 01, 2022

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $15.46) shares got a reiterated Outperform rating from Telsey

Abercrombie & Fitch Co . shares got a reiterated Outperform rating and a price target of $25.00 from Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey.

According to Telsey, inventory balances are expected to be right-sized to demand trends ahead of the holidays. The pullback in orders from companies such as Walmart Inc creates a more favorable chase environment, the analyst indicated.

Telsey indicated that freight seems like a tailwind to margin in Q4, with the benefit continuing into FY23. Also, the analyst continues to expect long-term margin expansion opportunity through better store footprint and strengthening digital penetration.

Related Ticker: ANF

ANF in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on May 24, 2023

ANF moved above its 50-day moving average on May 24, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 24, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ANF as a result. In of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ANF just turned positive on May 09, 2023. Looking at past instances where ANF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for ANF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a +3 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ANF advanced for three days, in of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ANF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ANF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 26, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for ANF entered a downward trend on May 15, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ANF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ANF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.157) is normal, around the industry mean (3.458). P/E Ratio (588.235) is within average values for comparable stocks, (121.055). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.378). ANF has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (0.424) is also within normal values, averaging (1.686).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Gap (The) (NYSE:GPS), Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF), Guess (NYSE:GES), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX).

Industry description

Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry is 10.09B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 256K to 104.19B. IDEXY holds the highest valuation in this group at 104.19B. The lowest valued company is DESTQ at 256K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7%. ANF experienced the highest price growth at 31%, while GCO experienced the biggest fall at -36%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -67%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -2% and the average quarterly volume growth was 10%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51
P/E Growth Rating: 45
Price Growth Rating: 57
SMR Rating: 57
Profit Risk Rating: 81
Seasonality Score: 20 (-100 ... +100)
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