After a Week of Selling, Winning and Losing Industries Emerge
Since the low in March, the overall market has gone through two pretty distinct rallies with brief interruptions in June and now again at the beginning of September. Using the S&P 500 as a barometer for the overall market, we see that the index was up 44.5% from March 23 through June 8. From June 8 through June 26, the index fell 7%. It’s hard to call a 7% decline a pullback, but the period on the chart looks more like a short-term disruption.
The second rally took place from June 26 through September 2 and it saw the index gain 19%. From September 2 through September 10, the index fell 6.75%. It isn’t clear just yet whether the current disruption in the rally is over yet or if it is the start of something bigger.
It’s unclear whether the current disruption will last longer or become something more. But I wanted to find out which sectors and industries have performed the best during the rallies and during the disruptions.
I started with the current disruption and went to Tickeron’s Group Trends Screener to find out which groups have been performing the best and the worst over the last week. On the positive side, four of the top five groups are in the healthcare sector. The Orphan group was the top performer and it refers to rare diseases, and companies in this category are biotech entities developing treatments for those diseases. The other healthcare oriented groups are Central Nervous System, Immunotherapy, and Novel Medical. All of the groups gained 4% or more as the overall market fell.
As for the downside, all 10 of the worst performing groups were associated with the oil and gas industries—the energy sector. Everything from shale, offshore drilling, oil field services were on the list of worst performers. The losses ranged from 8.36% to 11.75%.
After looking at the performances from the different groups over the past week, I went back to look at how the different sectors performed during the different phases. I broke them down in the table below with the performances in the first rally, the first consolidation, and then the second rally. The energy sector was far and away the top performer as it rebounded from the temporary negative oil prices and the sector almost doubled from March 23 through June 8.
I used the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) to represent the overall sector. Since June 8, the energy sector has fallen 29.6% and that is by far the worst performance of the bunch. We see the sector also took the worst hit during the first consolidation.
The tech sector, as represented by the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), held up the best during the first consolidation and it was the top performer during the second rally with a gain of 25.1%. So far, in the current pullback, the tech sector has been the worst performer and is down over 10%.
To summarize what has happened so far, the top performing sector in the first rally became the worst performer in the first disruption. The top performer during the first disruption continued on to be the top performing sector in the second rally. Now it has been the worst performer in the second disruption. This presents an interesting dilemma and it has me wondering what the results will be once this disruption is over.
So far during the current disruption, the two sectors that have held up the best are materials and utilities. Will one of those two sectors be the top performer when the next rally happens? It is worth keeping an eye on.
XLE's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for XLE moved out of overbought territory on June 23, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 27, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLE as a result. In of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLE turned negative on June 25, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 61 cases where XLE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLE moved above its 50-day moving average on June 06, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 10, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLE advanced for three days, in of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 296 cases where XLE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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