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Sep 14, 2020

After a Week of Selling, Winning and Losing Industries Emerge

Since the low in March, the overall market has gone through two pretty distinct rallies with brief interruptions in June and now again at the beginning of September. Using the S&P 500 as a barometer for the overall market, we see that the index was up 44.5% from March 23 through June 8. From June 8 through June 26, the index fell 7%. It’s hard to call a 7% decline a pullback, but the period on the chart looks more like a short-term disruption.

The second rally took place from June 26 through September 2 and it saw the index gain 19%. From September 2 through September 10, the index fell 6.75%. It isn’t clear just yet whether the current disruption in the rally is over yet or if it is the start of something bigger.

It’s unclear whether the current disruption will last longer or become something more. But I wanted to find out which sectors and industries have performed the best during the rallies and during the disruptions.

I started with the current disruption and went to Tickeron’s Group Trends Screener to find out which groups have been performing the best and the worst over the last week. On the positive side, four of the top five groups are in the healthcare sector. The Orphan group was the top performer and it refers to rare diseases, and companies in this category are biotech entities developing treatments for those diseases. The other healthcare oriented groups are Central Nervous System, Immunotherapy, and Novel Medical. All of the groups gained 4% or more as the overall market fell.

As for the downside, all 10 of the worst performing groups were associated with the oil and gas industries—the energy sector. Everything from shale, offshore drilling, oil field services were on the list of worst performers. The losses ranged from 8.36% to 11.75%.  

After looking at the performances from the different groups over the past week, I went back to look at how the different sectors performed during the different phases. I broke them down in the table below with the performances in the first rally, the first consolidation, and then the second rally. The energy sector was far and away the top performer as it rebounded from the temporary negative oil prices and the sector almost doubled from March 23 through June 8.

I used the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) to represent the overall sector. Since June 8, the energy sector has fallen 29.6% and that is by far the worst performance of the bunch. We see the sector also took the worst hit during the first consolidation.

The tech sector, as represented by the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), held up the best during the first consolidation and it was the top performer during the second rally with a gain of 25.1%. So far, in the current pullback, the tech sector has been the worst performer and is down over 10%.

To summarize what has happened so far, the top performing sector in the first rally became the worst performer in the first disruption. The top performer during the first disruption continued on to be the top performing sector in the second rally. Now it has been the worst performer in the second disruption. This presents an interesting dilemma and it has me wondering what the results will be once this disruption is over.

So far during the current disruption, the two sectors that have held up the best are materials and utilities. Will one of those two sectors be the top performer when the next rally happens? It is worth keeping an eye on.

Related Ticker: XLE

XLE in +1.83% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on April 01, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where XLE advanced for three days, in of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The 50-day moving average for XLE moved above the 200-day moving average on February 26, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 273 cases where XLE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

XLE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), MARATHON PETROLEUM Corp (NYSE:MPC), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), Pioneer Natural Resource Co (NYSE:PXD), Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY), Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Energy Select Sector Index. In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Energy companies by the GICS®, including securities of companies from the following industries: oil, gas and consumable fuels; and energy equipment and services. It is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF is 87.57B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 10.68B to 461.22B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 461.22B. The lowest valued company is APA at 10.68B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was 2%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 10%, and the average quarterly price growth was 13%. EQT experienced the highest price growth at 7%, while BKR experienced the biggest fall at 0%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was -14%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -18% and the average quarterly volume growth was -37%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 60
P/E Growth Rating: 38
Price Growth Rating: 27
SMR Rating: 43
Profit Risk Rating: 34
Seasonality Score: 32 (-100 ... +100)
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XLEDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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