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published in Blogs
Jun 12, 2019

Allegheny Technologies (ATI) facing two layers of resistance

Specialty steel manufacturer Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI) has been trending lower since late February. A trend channel has formed in the last three and a half months and the upper rail is formed by connecting the high from February with the high from April. The lower rail connects the lows from March and May. A recent bounce in the stock has brought the stock up to the upper rail at this time.

You can also see that the 50-day moving average is in the same area. This means the stock is facing two layers of resistance. The daily stochastic readings hit overbought territory and made a bearish crossover on June 10. This is yet another potential problem for the stock.

%The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for Allegheny on June 6. The signal showed a confidence level of 87%, and 70% of past predictions on the stock have been successful. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month.

Allegheny has struggled as a company in recent years. Earnings have been declining in recent years and they were down 63% in the most recent quarterly report. In addition to the declining earnings, the ROE is below average at 11.5% and the profit margin is only 5.7%.

I hate to post a bearish article on Allegheny as my father retired from the company and I actually worked in one of their factories as a summer job when I was in college. But the chart and the indicators speak for themselves.

Related Ticker: ATI

Aroon Indicator for ATI shows an upward move is likely

ATI's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on March 19, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 231 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 231 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 25, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ATI as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ATI just turned positive on April 01, 2024. Looking at past instances where ATI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ATI advanced for three days, in of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ATI moved out of overbought territory on March 11, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ATI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ATI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ATI's P/B Ratio (4.748) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.418). P/E Ratio (18.153) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.638). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.438). ATI has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.045). P/S Ratio (1.833) is also within normal values, averaging (3.636).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X).

Industry description

The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Steel Industry is 4.87B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 107.02K to 47.49B. NUE holds the highest valuation in this group at 47.49B. The lowest valued company is GCIN at 107.02K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 2%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. USAP experienced the highest price growth at 14%, while MTRT experienced the biggest fall at -42%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was -12%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -25% and the average quarterly volume growth was -16%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 28
P/E Growth Rating: 38
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 67
Profit Risk Rating: 67
Seasonality Score: -10 (-100 ... +100)
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ATIDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
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General Information

a manufacturer of steel and specialty metals

Industry Steel

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Steel
Address
2021 McKinney Avenue
Phone
+1 800 289-7454
Employees
7300
Web
https://www.atimaterials.com
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