Alphria (APHA, $5.03) reports fiscal Q4 loss

Marijuana company Aphria  reported a fiscal-fourth-quarter loss amid the coronavirus pandemic.

For the quarter ended May 31, the Canadian  company experienced a loss of -C$98.8 million (US$74 million), or -39 Canadian cents a share, compared to FactSet analyst consensus called for a loss of -3 cents a share.In the year-ago quarter, profit came in at C$15.8 million, or 5 cents a share.

Revenue rose +18% year-over-year to C$152.2 million in the latest quarter. Analysts estimated revenue of C$149. Million.

The average selling price of adult-use cannabis, before excise tax, fell 4.4% to $5.23 a gram from $5.47, primarily due to a change in sales mix and price reductions in key markets to solidify market share, according to Aphria.

According to Tickeron, APHA's Aroon indicator reaches into Uptrend on July 28, 2020

For traders, this could mean going long on the ticker or exploring call options in the next month. In 202 of 216 cases where APHA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

Current price $5.02 is above $4.66 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 06/25/20 - 07/28/20, the price experienced a +42% Uptrend. During the week of 07/21/20 - 07/28/20, the stock enjoyed a +15% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on July 10, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 57 of 78 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where APHA's MACD histogram became positive, in 28 of 38 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.

The 50-day Moving Average crossing above its 200-day Moving Average indicates a buy signal, due to the trend repositioning higher. In 1 of 2 cases where APHA's 50-day Moving Average crossed above its 200-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APHA advanced for three days, in 237 of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 86%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 32 of 43 cases where APHA's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 74%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 61%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 3.58 to 1.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. APHA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APHA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.17) is normal, around the industry mean (0.66). P/E Ratio (64.03) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.54). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.20) is also within normal values, averaging (115.92). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.88) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.39) is also within normal values, averaging (10.67).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.