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published in Blogs
Jul 30, 2019

Altria (MO, $48.44) forecasts slowing cigarette volumes, and hints at uncertainty over Juul

On Tuesday, Altria Group reported second-quarter adjusted earnings that was almost in line with analysts' expectations. However, the cigarette maker warned that cigarette sales declines are worsening, and also expressed current uncertainty on Juul’s international expansion.

Excluding special items such as litigation, costs associated with Altria's investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev and its stake in Canadian cannabis producer Cronos, Altria’s earnings came in at $1.10 a share for the quarter, almost matching the consensus estimate of analysts polled by FactSet.

The company's total sales climbed +5.5% year-over-year to $5.19 billion in the quarter, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $5.09 billion.

Altria also affirmed its projection of full-year adjusted earnings of between $4.15 and $4.27 a share.

However, the company indicated that U.S. cigarette volumes would decline between -5% and -6% this year, as cigarette smokers switch to e-cigarettes. Its prior forecast of the decline was -3.5% to -5%.

Altria also revised its expectations of total domestic cigarette industry volumes decline to -4% to -6% through 2023, compared to the previously forecast range of -4% to -5%. The company feels that part of this can be attributed to 18 states raising the permissible smoking age to 21. 

Apparently in a bid to capitalize on the growing e-cigarette market,  Altria invested $12.8 billion last year for a 35% stake in e-cigarrette startup Juul. Altria is hoping for Juul’s international growth to boost business, but Altria CEO Howard Willard said it’s “too soon” to judge the outcome. Meanwhile, e-smoking apparently continues to face scrutiny in various parts of the world for its burgeoning popularity among teenagers. 

Other recent instances of product-portfolio diversification of the Marlboro-maker include its $1.8 billion investment for a 45% stake in Canadian cannabis company Cronos earlier this year , and its $372 million spending for oral nicotine pouch brand On.

Altria will also begin selling heated tobacco product iQOS, in the U.S. this summer. Philip Morris International will license the device to Altria. The Food and Drug Administration earlier this year gave its approval on iQOS sales in the U.S.

Related Ticker: MO

MO in +0.69% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on February 28, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where MO advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MO as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MO just turned positive on February 22, 2024. Looking at past instances where MO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

MO moved above its 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for MO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 01, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

MO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for MO entered a downward trend on February 20, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (25.253) is normal, around the industry mean (60.724). P/E Ratio (8.952) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.139). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.371) is also within normal values, averaging (5.326). MO has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.094) as compared to the industry average of (0.061). P/S Ratio (3.546) is also within normal values, averaging (41.027).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Altria Group (NYSE:MO).

Industry description

The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Tobacco Industry is 18.02B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 160.39K to 139.66B. PM holds the highest valuation in this group at 139.66B. The lowest valued company is VHUB at 160.39K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0%. TPB experienced the highest price growth at 17%, while PYYX experienced the biggest fall at -34%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -43%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -68% and the average quarterly volume growth was -43%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 38
P/E Growth Rating: 69
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 63
Profit Risk Rating: 84
Seasonality Score: 18 (-100 ... +100)
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MODaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a holding company which produces and markets tobacco products

Industry Tobacco

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Tobacco
Address
6601 West Broad Street
Phone
+1 804 274-2200
Employees
6300
Web
https://www.altria.com
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MO and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MO has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MO jumps, then PM could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To MO
1D Price
Change %
MO100%
-0.10%
PM - MO
56%
Loosely correlated
-0.12%
BTI - MO
47%
Loosely correlated
-0.38%
VGR - MO
41%
Loosely correlated
-1.14%
UVV - MO
33%
Poorly correlated
+0.34%
TPB - MO
27%
Poorly correlated
+4.78%
More
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