Cellular tower REIT American Tower (NYSE: AMT) has been in a strong upward trend over the past year with the trajectory of the rally becoming steeper in 2019. Now the company is set to release third quarter earnings results on October 31 and investors are hoping the rally can continue.
Analysts expect American Tower to report earnings of $0.95 per share on the quarter with revenue coming in at $1.87 billion. In the third quarter of 2018, the company earned $0.83 on revenue of $1.79 billion. This reflects earnings growth expectations of 14.5% and expected revenue growth of 4.9%. Over the last three years the company has seen earnings grow by 21% per year while revenue has grown by 13%. In the second quarter the company saw EPS grow by 7% and revenue grew by 6%. The return on equity for American Tower is 21.4% and the profit margin is 15.5%.
When we add all of this fundamental data up, we get different ratings for how the company is doing compared to other companies. In American Tower’s case, they are doing well in most fundamental categories.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for American Tower is 2, indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The PE Growth Rating for AMT is 32, pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37, indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The one area of concern from the fundamental analysis is the Valuation Rating of 99. It indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.
Looking at the weekly chart for American Tower we see that the stock has been trading above its 13-week moving average since last October. That is an impressive run, especially considering the volatility we have seen in the overall market for the past year.
The overbought/oversold indicators are in the upper half of their range, but neither is in overbought territory. We see that the weekly stochastic readings haven’t been below the 50 level since June 2018. The 10-week RSI hasn’t been below the 5o level since October of last year. Neither of the indicators has been in oversold territory in the last three and a half years.
Despite the incredible performance from the company and the stock, analysts are more bearish toward the stock than the average stock. There are 18 analysts covering the stock and only six rank the stock as a “buy”. There are 11 “hold” ratings and one “sell” rating. This puts the buy percentage at 33% and that is well below the average range of 65% to 75%.
The short interest for American Tower is at 2.3 currently. This reading is a little below average and reflects a slight bullish skew from short sellers.
Given the overall picture for American Tower, there is very little to suggest that the rally will end once the earnings are released next week.
The 10-day moving average for AMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 22, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AMT entered a downward trend on April 22, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for AMT's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 16 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMT advanced for three days, in of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AMT's P/B Ratio (21.459) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.959). P/E Ratio (60.695) is within average values for comparable stocks, (61.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.504) is also within normal values, averaging (6.879). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.068) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.091) is also within normal values, averaging (7.148).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a real estate investment trust
Industry RealEstateInvestmentTrusts