An Interesting Time for UPS to Develop a Possible Bearish Formation
Parcel delivery company United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is currently in one of its busiest times of the year. During the holiday season, the company sees a big boost to package traffic due to the increase in sales from retailers and individuals shipping packages to their loved ones. To give you an idea of how much business increases, I looked back at 2017’s quarterly results. The company’s revenue jumped by 17.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to the third quarter.
While the revenue boost is interesting, that isn’t what caught my eye. Looking at the daily chart of UPS, we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern forming and that would be a bearish sign for the stock.
We see that the stock topped out around the $117.50 area in June and then dipped down to the $103.50 level in July. This could be the left shoulder and the left side of the neck. The stock then rallied up to the $124 area in September before dipping back down to the $103.50 area in late October. Over the past month the stock has rallied back up to the $117.50 area.
The stock could still break through this area, but is interesting that it stalled there yesterday when the market was making such a strong move. The stock gapped up 1.15% on the open, but then fell throughout the day and ended up taking a small loss on the day.
The next day or two will give us a better idea of whether the stock is more likely to drop back down to complete the head and shoulders pattern or break above the resistance at the $117.50 area.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
UPS's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 12 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UPS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 202 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
UPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPS as a result. In 50 of 99 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UPS turned negative on September 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.322) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (17.519) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.070) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.013). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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