An Interesting Time for UPS to Develop a Possible Bearish Formation
Parcel delivery company United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is currently in one of its busiest times of the year. During the holiday season, the company sees a big boost to package traffic due to the increase in sales from retailers and individuals shipping packages to their loved ones. To give you an idea of how much business increases, I looked back at 2017’s quarterly results. The company’s revenue jumped by 17.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to the third quarter.
While the revenue boost is interesting, that isn’t what caught my eye. Looking at the daily chart of UPS, we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern forming and that would be a bearish sign for the stock.
We see that the stock topped out around the $117.50 area in June and then dipped down to the $103.50 level in July. This could be the left shoulder and the left side of the neck. The stock then rallied up to the $124 area in September before dipping back down to the $103.50 area in late October. Over the past month the stock has rallied back up to the $117.50 area.
The stock could still break through this area, but is interesting that it stalled there yesterday when the market was making such a strong move. The stock gapped up 1.15% on the open, but then fell throughout the day and ended up taking a small loss on the day.
The next day or two will give us a better idea of whether the stock is more likely to drop back down to complete the head and shoulders pattern or break above the resistance at the $117.50 area.
Momentum Indicator for UPS turns positive, indicating new upward trend
UPS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on July 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 99 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 99 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on July 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 203 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.090) is normal, around the industry mean (3.321). P/E Ratio (18.275) is within average values for comparable stocks, (205.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.782) is also within normal values, averaging (2.370). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.058) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (1.087) is also within normal values, averaging (0.979).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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