GET DAILY SIGNALSArcher Daniels Midland (ADM, $40.90) disappoints on Q1 earnings
Archer Daniels Midland’s earnings for the first quarter fell short of analysts’ estimates by a wide margin.
The food processing & commodities trading company reported earnings of 41 cents a share for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectation of 60 cents (based on FactSet data). Earnings were also lower from the year-ago quarter’s 70 cents.
Revenue of $15.3 billion came in lower compared to analysts’ estimates of $15.6 billion.
Chairman and CEO Juan Luciano cited adverse weather conditions in North America and ethanol industry issues as major headwinds to the company’s lower-than-expected performance in the first quarter.
However, Luciano is hopeful that business would improve in the second half of the year would due to the company’s business strategy, an expected resolution of the U.S.-China trade tensions and an anticipated boost in soybean meal demand driven by African Swine Fever. Also, the company is expected to adapt its corn wet mill in Marshall, Minnesota,for producing higher volumes of food and industrial-grade starches.
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Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ADM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ADM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADM as a result. In 53 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADM turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
ADM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for ADM entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADM advanced for three days, in 199 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
ADM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.549) is normal, around the industry mean (2.295). P/E Ratio (20.702) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.993) is also within normal values, averaging (2.441). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.502) is also within normal values, averaging (2.353).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a provider of the processing of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities
Industry AgriculturalCommoditiesMilling
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