Are Chipotle’s (CMG, $582.77) persistent problems finally fading?
Chipotle Mexican Grill has endured food-borne-illnesses and a persistent problem of attracting more customers. The burrito and bowl maker’s latest fourth quarter report revealed a stunning 6.1% comps growth, 2.2% of which came from increased transactions. This was the best comps result in nearly two years.
Restaurant level operating margin surged from 14.9% to 17% in Q4, even though it was lower than 18.7% in the third quarter, 19.7% in the second quarter, or 19.5% in the first quarter of the 2018.
The company attributes the sequential reduction in restaurant-level margins to a big increase in what Chipotle classifies as "other operating costs." These made up 15.5% of sales in the fourth quarter, versus 13.8% or less every other quarter in 2018. Further, Chipotle's tax bill is expected to fall in 2019. The company paid an effective tax rate of 34.2% in 2018, but it anticipates a 2019 effective rate of between 27% and 30%. The company also plans to open between 140 and 155 new restaurants this year, which would be a significant improvement from 2018.
Overall, this data shows that customers are willing to pay good price for good quality. The new CEO’s vision, restructuring and marketing strategies all seem to be working, for now.
CMG in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on August 24, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CMG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
CMG moved above its 50-day moving average on August 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 50-day moving average for CMG moved above the 200-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +0.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMG advanced for three days, in 194 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 154 of 250 cases where CMG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMG moved out of overbought territory on August 25, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMG as a result. In 51 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMG turned negative on September 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CMG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CMG's P/B Ratio (20.833) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.556). P/E Ratio (33.519) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.610). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.601) is also within normal values, averaging (1.640). CMG has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.029). P/S Ratio (3.817) is also within normal values, averaging (2.744).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CMG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants
Industry Restaurants
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