Bearish signal for metals and mining ETF
When the Federal Reserve hinted at becoming more dovish at the end of May, gold started rallying rather sharply and the price per ounce jumped from $1,280 to over $1,440. The sentiment toward the commodity also jumped as the price rose. This rally had a positive impact on a number of ETFs, but one that caught my eye recently was the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE: XME). The XME rallied from the $24 area to a recent high of $28.55.
Unfortunately, the rally simply brought the XME up to a downward sloped trend line that connects the highs from February and April. We also see that the daily overbought/oversold indicators were both in overbought territory until turning lower in the last few days. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on July 2.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on the XME on June 28 and it showed a confidence level of 87%. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Previous predictions on the fund have been successful 93% of the time.
With the recent announcement that China and the U.S. have agreed to a tariff truce, this could lead to a less dovish Fed and that could cause the rally in gold to stall. That is one fundamental factor to keep an eye on.
XME's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XME advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XME may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XME moved out of overbought territory on January 29, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XME as a result. In of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XME turned negative on January 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
XME moved below its 50-day moving average on March 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XME crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XME declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for XME entered a downward trend on February 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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