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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jul 04, 2019

Bearish signal for metals and mining ETF

When the Federal Reserve hinted at becoming more dovish at the end of May, gold started rallying rather sharply and the price per ounce jumped from $1,280 to over $1,440. The sentiment toward the commodity also jumped as the price rose. This rally had a positive impact on a number of ETFs, but one that caught my eye recently was the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE: XME). The XME rallied from the $24 area to a recent high of $28.55.

Unfortunately, the rally simply brought the XME up to a downward sloped trend line that connects the highs from February and April. We also see that the daily overbought/oversold indicators were both in overbought territory until turning lower in the last few days. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on July 2.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on the XME on June 28 and it showed a confidence level of 87%. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Previous predictions on the fund have been successful 93% of the time.

With the recent announcement that China and the U.S. have agreed to a tariff truce, this could lead to a less dovish Fed and that could cause the rally in gold to stall. That is one fundamental factor to keep an eye on.

Related Ticker: XME

XME in +2.14% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on June 17, 2025

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where XME advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 308 cases where XME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XME turned negative on May 22, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XME declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX), Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM), Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X), Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an index derived from the metals and mining segment of a U.S. total market composite index. In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index (the "index"), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the metals and mining segment of the S&P Total Market Index ("S&P TMI"). The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF ETF is 7.88B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 345.93M to 67.89B. FCX holds the highest valuation in this group at 67.89B. The lowest valued company is ZEUS at 345.93M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF ETF was 4%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 12%, and the average quarterly price growth was 18%. MP experienced the highest price growth at 45%, while CENX experienced the biggest fall at -10%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF ETF was -7%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 58% and the average quarterly volume growth was -34%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 35
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 53
Seasonality Score: -30 (-100 ... +100)
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