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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jul 04, 2019

Bearish signal for metals and mining ETF

When the Federal Reserve hinted at becoming more dovish at the end of May, gold started rallying rather sharply and the price per ounce jumped from $1,280 to over $1,440. The sentiment toward the commodity also jumped as the price rose. This rally had a positive impact on a number of ETFs, but one that caught my eye recently was the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE: XME). The XME rallied from the $24 area to a recent high of $28.55.

Unfortunately, the rally simply brought the XME up to a downward sloped trend line that connects the highs from February and April. We also see that the daily overbought/oversold indicators were both in overbought territory until turning lower in the last few days. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on July 2.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on the XME on June 28 and it showed a confidence level of 87%. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Previous predictions on the fund have been successful 93% of the time.

With the recent announcement that China and the U.S. have agreed to a tariff truce, this could lead to a less dovish Fed and that could cause the rally in gold to stall. That is one fundamental factor to keep an eye on.

Related Ticker: XME

XME sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line

XME saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on June 04, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 04, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XME as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XME moved below its 50-day moving average on June 07, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for XME crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 12, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XME declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XME's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XME advanced for three days, in of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

XME may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 314 cases where XME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 1.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 85%.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX), Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM), Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA), Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an index derived from the metals and mining segment of a U.S. total market composite index. In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index (the "index"), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the metals and mining segment of the S&P Total Market Index ("S&P TMI"). The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF ETF is 8.26B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 434M to 67.89B. FCX holds the highest valuation in this group at 67.89B. The lowest valued company is RDUS at 434M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF ETF was -3%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was -9%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1%. STLD experienced the highest price growth at 2%, while MP experienced the biggest fall at -11%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF ETF was 17%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -29% and the average quarterly volume growth was -26%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 38
P/E Growth Rating: 38
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 66
Profit Risk Rating: 45
Seasonality Score: -17 (-100 ... +100)
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XMEDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

Category NaturalResources

Profile
Fundamentals
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Natural Resources
Address
SPDR Series TrustOne Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
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