Bearish signal generated on PBF Energy
The oil and gas exploration and production sector have lagged the overall market over the past year. The SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (NYSE: XOP) is down just over 40% in the past year while the S&P 500 is up 3.55%. However, over the last two weeks, the sector has rallied sharply and the XOP is up 14.9% while the S&P is up 3.84%. The relative strength for the sector has been strong, but that strength has put many stocks in the sector in overbought territory.
One such stock is PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF). PBF has rallied over 20% in the last few weeks and the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory. The indicators did, however, make a bearish crossover on September 10.
The 10-day RSI is close to overbought territory at 68.70 and that is the highest reading for the indicator since the end of June. What we see on the chart is that the stock peaked on June 30, right as the RSI and stochastic readings were both in overbought territory. From that day through mid-August, the stock fell over 30%. Could the stock be setting up for a repeat downturn?
It is also worth noting that the stock has been below its 50-day moving average for over a month now. The stock did move above the moving average on September 10, but it pulled back at the end of the day and closed just above the trend line.
In addition to the bearish crossover from the stochastic readings and the overbought level on the RSI, the higher Bollinger Band was broken on September 5 and the stock has remained above the upper band. According to the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview, a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. In 27 of 43 cases where PBF's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued downtrend are 63%.
Looking at the fundamentals for PBF, the company hasn’t performed very well in recent years. The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for this company is 93, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PBF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97, indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Digging deeper in to the stats that make up the SMR rating, PBF saw earnings decline by 40% in the most recent quarter as sales were down 12%. The return on equity for the company is 15.5% and that is average. However, the profit margin is only 2.0% and that is well below average.
In addition to the downward trend from the technical side and poor fundamentals, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for PBF on September 9. The signal showed a confidence level of 72% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on PBF have been successful 88% of the time.
PBF in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on May 12, 2025
The 10-day moving average for PBF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 12, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 11, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PBF as a result. In of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PBF just turned positive on June 12, 2025. Looking at past instances where PBF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
PBF moved above its 50-day moving average on June 05, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 263 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on May 20, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PBF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 09, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.076) is normal, around the industry mean (9.584). P/E Ratio (3.546) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.092). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.907). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.199) is also within normal values, averaging (0.483).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PBF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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an operator of petroleum refiners and suppliers
Industry OilRefiningMarketing
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