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Sep 11, 2019

Bearish signal generated on PBF Energy

The oil and gas exploration and production sector have lagged the overall market over the past year. The SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (NYSE: XOP) is down just over 40% in the past year while the S&P 500 is up 3.55%. However, over the last two weeks, the sector has rallied sharply and the XOP is up 14.9% while the S&P is up 3.84%. The relative strength for the sector has been strong, but that strength has put many stocks in the sector in overbought territory.

One such stock is PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF). PBF has rallied over 20% in the last few weeks and the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory. The indicators did, however, make a bearish crossover on September 10.

The 10-day RSI is close to overbought territory at 68.70 and that is the highest reading for the indicator since the end of June. What we see on the chart is that the stock peaked on June 30, right as the RSI and stochastic readings were both in overbought territory. From that day through mid-August, the stock fell over 30%. Could the stock be setting up for a repeat downturn?

It is also worth noting that the stock has been below its 50-day moving average for over a month now. The stock did move above the moving average on September 10, but it pulled back at the end of the day and closed just above the trend line.

In addition to the bearish crossover from the stochastic readings and the overbought level on the RSI, the higher Bollinger Band was broken on September 5 and the stock has remained above the upper band. According to the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview, a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. In 27 of 43 cases where PBF's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued downtrend are 63%.

Looking at the fundamentals for PBF, the company hasn’t performed very well in recent years. The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for this company is 93, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PBF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97, indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Digging deeper in to the stats that make up the SMR rating, PBF saw earnings decline by 40% in the most recent quarter as sales were down 12%. The return on equity for the company is 15.5% and that is average. However, the profit margin is only 2.0% and that is well below average.

In addition to the downward trend from the technical side and poor fundamentals, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for PBF on September 9. The signal showed a confidence level of 72% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on PBF have been successful 88% of the time.

Related Ticker: PBF

PBF sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

PBF saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on February 16, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on February 13, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBF as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

PBF moved below its 50-day moving average on February 28, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

The 10-day moving average for PBF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on January 29, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

PBF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 284 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.844) is normal, around the industry mean (8.398). P/E Ratio (2.773) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.443). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.925). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.056) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.156) is also within normal values, averaging (0.640).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are MARATHON PETROLEUM Corp (NYSE:MPC), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO).

Industry description

The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Oil Refining/Marketing Industry is 6.79B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 107.69K to 61.51B. MPC holds the highest valuation in this group at 61.51B. The lowest valued company is AMCF at 107.69K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Oil Refining/Marketing Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 4%. OILRF experienced the highest price growth at 17%, while VTNR experienced the biggest fall at -24%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Oil Refining/Marketing Industry was -44%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -34% and the average quarterly volume growth was -29%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 49
Profit Risk Rating: 74
Seasonality Score: -32 (-100 ... +100)
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PBFDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an operator of petroleum refiners and suppliers

Industry OilRefiningMarketing

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Oil Refining Or Marketing
Address
One Sylvan Way
Phone
+1 973 455-7500
Employees
3776
Web
https://www.pbfenergy.com
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PBF and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To PBF
1D Price
Change %
PBF100%
-4.36%
VLO - PBF
85%
Closely correlated
-2.63%
CVI - PBF
79%
Closely correlated
-4.53%
MPC - PBF
79%
Closely correlated
-2.29%
PARR - PBF
77%
Closely correlated
-8.91%
DK - PBF
77%
Closely correlated
-4.12%
More
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