Bearish signal on EOG Resources with earnings on the horizon

Oil & gas exploration company EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) is set to report earnings next week and analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.13. That is a sharp decline from the $1.75 the company earned in the same period last year, in fact it’s a drop of 35.4% that analysts expect. Earnings fell 4% in the second quarter and analysts expect earnings to fall by 12% for 2019 as a whole.

Other fundamental indicators aren’t near as bad as the earnings growth. Sales have grown at a rate of 43% per year over the last three years and they were up by 11% in the second quarter. The company sports a return on equity of 18.1% and a profit margin of 23.9%, both of which are slightly above average.

Despite what seem to be decent fundamentals, the company doesn’t score very well with Tickeron’s Fundamental Ratings. None of the various ratings are in the top half of readings when compared to other companies. The PE Growth Rating for EOG is 56. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.

The Tickeron SMR rating for the company is 62. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 92, indicating slightly worse than average price growth. EOG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return), while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for the company is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EOG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 99, placing this stock worse than average.

In addition to the fundamental shortcomings, the stock has been trending lower over the last six months and a trend channel has formed that defines the various cycles within the overall trend. The stock isn’t quite up to the upper rail of the downward sloped channel, but it seems to finding resistance at its 50-day moving average.

Something else that stands out about the chart is the daily stochastic readings being in overbought territory and making a bearish crossover on October 28. In the last three instances where this has happened, the stock has fallen at least 25% in the next few months.

If the bearish crossover from the stochastics wasn’t scary enough for you, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for EOG on October 25. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month and it shows a confidence level of 77%. Past predictions on EOG have been successful 74% of the time.

Even as EOG has struggled fundamentally and as the stock has been trending lower, the sentiment toward the stock is still rather bullish. There are 38 analysts following the stock with 30 “buy” ratings and eight “hold” ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 78.9% and that is above average.

The short interest ratio is below average at 2.4 and the number of shares sold short fell by 890K in the first half of October. The drop in the number of shares sold short is indicative of increasing optimism.