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Apr 23, 2019

Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings

Oil equipment manufacturer National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings on Thursday, April 25. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.01 per share for the quarter after reporting a loss of $0.21 per share in the first quarter of 2018.

The chart shows that the stock fell 8.39% on April 12 after it had moved in to overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. The stochastics made a bearish crossover on the big decline and the RSI dropped sharply.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Tool generated a bearish signal for National Oilwell Varco on April 12 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% in the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 55% which isn’t that high, but the past signals on the stock have been successful 79% of the time.

To be blunt, the company’s fundamentals aren’t very good. Sales have declined by 14% per year over the last three years and the profit margin is only 0.5%. It showed earnings growth of 175% in the fourth quarter, but that is a little misleading. The company earned $0.09 per share for the fourth quarter and that is an improvement over the loss of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2017.

In the last three earnings reports, National Oilwell has earned $0.09, broke even, and earned $0.06. Prior to that stretch, the company had been losing money for several years.

Related Ticker: NOV

NOV sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

NOV saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 12, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 40 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for NOV moved out of overbought territory on April 11, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 15, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NOV as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The 10-day moving average for NOV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 20, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOV advanced for three days, in of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

NOV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 231 cases where NOV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.258) is normal, around the industry mean (3.210). P/E Ratio (7.880) is within average values for comparable stocks, (51.445). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.268) is also within normal values, averaging (2.545). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.911) is also within normal values, averaging (1.452).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL), Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL).

Industry description

The oilfield services/equipment industry is involved in providing various equipment and services to oil and natural gas producers. These companies rent drilling rigs and/or provide services to build and maintain oil and gas wells. The performance of this industry is dependent on demand for oil and natural gas, which in turn is often driven by macroeconomic conditions or business cycles. Schlumberger NV, Halliburton Company, and Baker Hughes are some of the biggest oilfield services companies.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry is 3.17B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 717 to 79.1B. SLB holds the highest valuation in this group at 79.1B. The lowest valued company is FLSS at 717.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 8%. BWTX experienced the highest price growth at 90%, while RCON experienced the biggest fall at -23%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry was -5%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 21% and the average quarterly volume growth was -17%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 67
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 70
Profit Risk Rating: 80
Seasonality Score: 3 (-100 ... +100)
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NOVDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
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General Information

a company which engages in manufacturing of oil & gas drilling field machinery and equipment

Industry OilfieldServicesEquipment

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Oilfield Services Or Equipment
Address
10353 Richmond Avenue
Phone
+1 346 223-3000
Employees
32307
Web
https://www.nov.com
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