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Apr 23, 2019
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Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings

Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings

Oil equipment manufacturer National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings on Thursday, April 25. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.01 per share for the quarter after reporting a loss of $0.21 per share in the first quarter of 2018.

The chart shows that the stock fell 8.39% on April 12 after it had moved in to overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. The stochastics made a bearish crossover on the big decline and the RSI dropped sharply.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Tool generated a bearish signal for National Oilwell Varco on April 12 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% in the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 55% which isn’t that high, but the past signals on the stock have been successful 79% of the time.

To be blunt, the company’s fundamentals aren’t very good. Sales have declined by 14% per year over the last three years and the profit margin is only 0.5%. It showed earnings growth of 175% in the fourth quarter, but that is a little misleading. The company earned $0.09 per share for the fourth quarter and that is an improvement over the loss of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2017.

In the last three earnings reports, National Oilwell has earned $0.09, broke even, and earned $0.06. Prior to that stretch, the company had been losing money for several years.

Related Ticker: NOV

Contributor

Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.


NOV's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NOV turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where NOV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NOV's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NOV as a result. In 62 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.

Following a +4.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOV advanced for three days, in 233 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 62 cases where NOV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.

NOV moved below its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for NOV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.

NOV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for NOV entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.108) is normal, around the industry mean (1.591). P/E Ratio (71.444) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-29.912). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.787) is also within normal values, averaging (1.687). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.873) is also within normal values, averaging (1.663).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are SLB Limited (NYSE:SLB), Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL).

Industry description

The oilfield services/equipment industry is involved in providing various equipment and services to oil and natural gas producers. These companies rent drilling rigs and/or provide services to build and maintain oil and gas wells. The performance of this industry is dependent on demand for oil and natural gas, which in turn is often driven by macroeconomic conditions or business cycles. Schlumberger NV, Halliburton Company, and Baker Hughes are some of the biggest oilfield services companies.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry is 6.21B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 43.89 to 79.75B. SLB holds the highest valuation in this group at 79.75B. The lowest valued company is KEGX at 43.89.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -0%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15%. SEI experienced the highest price growth at 20%, while DWSN experienced the biggest fall at -10%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry was -20%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -26% and the average quarterly volume growth was -31%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 40
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 68
Seasonality Score: -49 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a company which engages in manufacturing of oil & gas drilling field machinery and equipment

Industry OilfieldServicesEquipment

Industry
Oilfield Services Or Equipment
Address
10353 Richmond Avenue
Phone
+1 346 223-3000
Employees
31605
Web
https://www.nov.com
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Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings