Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings
Oil equipment manufacturer National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings on Thursday, April 25. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.01 per share for the quarter after reporting a loss of $0.21 per share in the first quarter of 2018.
The chart shows that the stock fell 8.39% on April 12 after it had moved in to overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. The stochastics made a bearish crossover on the big decline and the RSI dropped sharply.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Tool generated a bearish signal for National Oilwell Varco on April 12 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% in the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 55% which isn’t that high, but the past signals on the stock have been successful 79% of the time.
To be blunt, the company’s fundamentals aren’t very good. Sales have declined by 14% per year over the last three years and the profit margin is only 0.5%. It showed earnings growth of 175% in the fourth quarter, but that is a little misleading. The company earned $0.09 per share for the fourth quarter and that is an improvement over the loss of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2017.
In the last three earnings reports, National Oilwell has earned $0.09, broke even, and earned $0.06. Prior to that stretch, the company had been losing money for several years.
NOV's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NOV turned positive on April 22, 2025. Looking at past instances where NOV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NOV's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 67 cases where NOV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 08, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NOV as a result. In of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOV advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
NOV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 218 cases where NOV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
NOV moved below its 50-day moving average on April 03, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NOV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 04, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.258) is normal, around the industry mean (2.391). P/E Ratio (7.880) is within average values for comparable stocks, (42.382). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.268) is also within normal values, averaging (2.692). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.911) is also within normal values, averaging (1.435).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which engages in manufacturing of oil & gas drilling field machinery and equipment
Industry OilfieldServicesEquipment