Go to the list of all blogs
Harry Richardson's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 23, 2019
Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings

Bearish signal on National Oilwell Varco ahead of earnings

Oil equipment manufacturer National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings on Thursday, April 25. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.01 per share for the quarter after reporting a loss of $0.21 per share in the first quarter of 2018.

The chart shows that the stock fell 8.39% on April 12 after it had moved in to overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. The stochastics made a bearish crossover on the big decline and the RSI dropped sharply.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Tool generated a bearish signal for National Oilwell Varco on April 12 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% in the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 55% which isn’t that high, but the past signals on the stock have been successful 79% of the time.

To be blunt, the company’s fundamentals aren’t very good. Sales have declined by 14% per year over the last three years and the profit margin is only 0.5%. It showed earnings growth of 175% in the fourth quarter, but that is a little misleading. The company earned $0.09 per share for the fourth quarter and that is an improvement over the loss of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2017.

In the last three earnings reports, National Oilwell has earned $0.09, broke even, and earned $0.06. Prior to that stretch, the company had been losing money for several years.

Related Ticker: NOV

Contributor

Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.


NOV sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

NOV saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 14, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 52 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 73%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NOV as a result. In 64 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.

NOV moved below its 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for NOV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NOV's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 13 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +0.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOV advanced for three days, in 236 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

NOV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 172 of 236 cases where NOV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 32 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.120) is normal, around the industry mean (3.496). P/E Ratio (72.222) is within average values for comparable stocks, (88.534). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.787) is also within normal values, averaging (1.687). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.873) is also within normal values, averaging (1.663).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are SLB Limited (NYSE:SLB), Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL).

Industry description

The oilfield services/equipment industry is involved in providing various equipment and services to oil and natural gas producers. These companies rent drilling rigs and/or provide services to build and maintain oil and gas wells. The performance of this industry is dependent on demand for oil and natural gas, which in turn is often driven by macroeconomic conditions or business cycles. Schlumberger NV, Halliburton Company, and Baker Hughes are some of the biggest oilfield services companies.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry is 6.13B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 43.89 to 76.42B. SLB holds the highest valuation in this group at 76.42B. The lowest valued company is KEGX at 43.89.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry was 6%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -7%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5%. GOW experienced the highest price growth at 118%, while NESR experienced the biggest fall at -19%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry was -6%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 27% and the average quarterly volume growth was -50%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 55
P/E Growth Rating: 31
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 65
Seasonality Score: 22 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
NOV
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
Interact to see
Advertisement
A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which engages in manufacturing of oil & gas drilling field machinery and equipment

Industry OilfieldServicesEquipment

Industry
Oilfield Services Or Equipment
Address
10353 Richmond Avenue
Phone
+1 346 223-3000
Employees
31605
Web
https://www.nov.com
Interact to see
Advertisement
CVGI stock surged approximately +89% over the last 30 days, driven by strong Q4 2025 earnings beat on revenue and positive 2026 guidance. Over the past quarter, shares rose about +126%, reflecting improved profitability, debt reduction, and a key partnership announcement.
SAFX stock surged +104% over the past 30 days, driven by positive updates on a $10 million capital raise and merger progress. Over the past quarter, the stock rose +44%, reflecting recovery from lows amid renewable energy sector interest and strategic developments.
LONA stock surged +80% over the past 30 days, driven by positive analyst upgrades, executive appointments, and full-year financial updates highlighting pipeline progress. Over the past quarter, shares rose +48%, reflecting improved investor sentiment in biotech amid clinical advancements.
CURV stock surged approximately +73% over the last 30 days, driven primarily by a positive reaction to Q4 and fiscal 2025 earnings that beat expectations on EPS and revenue. Over the past quarter, the stock is up around +55%, reflecting recovery from lows near $1 amid ongoing store optimization and sub-brand launches
Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) focuses on artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled edge computing solutions, offering programmable AI processors and platforms for verticals such as smart cities, defense, retail, and enterprise markets. The company's core revolves around hardware like the Graph Streaming Processor (GSP) AI accelerator, compute cards, and software tools including Blaize AI Studio—a no-code/low-code environment for deploying AI models without source code expertise. Based in El Dorado Hills, California, and founded in 2010, it went public through a merger in early 2025.
Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. (CHCI) operates as an asset manager, developer, and operator of mixed-use and transit-oriented properties, mainly in the greater Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The company targets high-growth urban and suburban markets, overseeing a portfolio that spans residential, commercial, hospitality, and parking assets near key metro stations. Its asset-light, fee-based model delivers recurring revenue through property management, leasing, development services, and asset recapitalization for institutional investors, family offices, and governments.
ARM stock surged +26% over the past 30 days, driven by announcements of in-house chip production and strong analyst upgrades amid AI enthusiasm. Over the past quarter, the stock climbed +38%, reflecting robust Q3 earnings beat with 26% revenue growth and data center royalty doubling.
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) is an independent oil and gas company focused on offshore operations in federal waters off California. The company owns and operates three platforms in the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU), spanning 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres, along with subsea pipelines for crude oil, natural gas, and produced water transport to onshore facilities. Its core business model centers on restarting and developing prolific fields like the SYU, which had been idle due to regulatory and legal hurdles following a 2015 pipeline spill.
I've always been impressed by how Visa (V) commands the global payments landscape. As an open-loop network, it connects issuers, acquirers, merchants, and consumers without issuing cards or extending credit itself. The VisaNet platform processes over 65,000 transactions per second across more than 200 countries, supporting a ~52% share of the global credit card market and ~60% of debit. This scale generates powerful network effects, where greater adoption benefits everyone involved and creates formidable barriers to entry.
Following the Kenvue consumer health spin-off, Johnson & Johnson has transformed into a focused healthcare leader, emphasizing Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals) and MedTech (devices). In my view, this repositioning sharpens the company's edge in high-margin areas such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, cardiovascular, surgery, and vision, where its diversified portfolio and R&D efficiency provide clear competitive advantages.
I've long appreciated ASML Holding N.V.'s dominant position in the semiconductor lithography market. The company commands over 90% share in advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion systems and 100% in EUV lithography—the critical technology for chips below 7nm nodes used in AI, high-performance computing, and memory. This near-monopoly comes from decades of R&D investment, exclusive partnerships like Zeiss for optics, and a vast installed base that generates steady service revenue. From what I see, competitors such as Nikon and Canon remain far behind in EUV, sticking to mature nodes.
I've been watching Micron Technology (MU) closely through its recent volatility, which mirrors the semiconductor sector's heightened sensitivity to AI demand and supply constraints. The stock saw a sharp post-earnings sell-off tied to elevated capital expenditure plans, yet it has rebounded with surging DRAM prices—up 90-95%—and memory suppliers booked out for years. From what I see, broader tech optimism, including key partnerships and persistent supply tightness, is driving upward momentum. This positions MU as a pivotal player in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for data centers. Trading near recent highs around $368, the shares highlight investor focus on Micron's critical role in the AI infrastructure expansion under these constrained industry conditions.
I've always appreciated how Mastercard (MA) maintains a commanding position in the global payments industry, processing transactions across 3.4 billion cards at 150 million merchant locations worldwide. The network effects here create a formidable moat—increased adoption by issuers, acquirers, and consumers just reinforces its dominance. What stands out to me is how Mastercard is evolving beyond a pure processor into a services-first platform. Value-added services (VAS)—covering cybersecurity, data analytics, and consulting—are now approaching 40% of revenues and growing at double the rate of traditional payments.
MU shares are declining approximately -6.00% in premarket trading on April 2, 2026, pulling back to roughly $353.70 from the prior session's close of $376.27. The primary catalyst is a sweeping new round of tariff announcements from the Trump administration, dubbed by markets as "Liberation Day 2.0," which has sparked a broad risk-off selloff across technology and semiconductor stocks
Shares of Robinhood Markets are down approximately 6.15% in Thursday's intraday session, trading around $65.80 after closing at $70.11 on April 1, 2026. Wolfe Research delivered a sharp blow by cutting its price target on HOOD by 30%, citing persistent weakness in crypto trading volumes as a core drag on revenue.
Shares of Iridium Communications (IRDM) surged approximately +11.00% in Thursday's session, rising from a prior close of $28.52 to an intraday high near $31.76. A broad-based equity market rally drove significant gains across communication and satellite sector stocks, as investor sentiment sharply reversed after days of macro-driven selling pressure tied to tariff fears.
AirSculpt Technologies, Inc. (AIRS) stands out as a leading provider of minimally invasive body contouring procedures through its Elite Body Sculpture brand. The company specializes in proprietary AirSculpt treatments that remove fat and tighten skin without general anesthesia. These include options like AirSculpt+, AirSculpt Smooth for cellulite reduction, and specialized fat transfer procedures such as Power BBL for Brazilian butt lifts, Up a Cup for breast enhancement, and Hip Flip for hourglass contouring. Based in Miami Beach, Florida, and founded in 2012, AIRS operates centers across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
ASRT stock surged +66% over the past 30 days, driven by strong Q4 2025 earnings beat and optimistic 2026 guidance highlighting Rolvedon growth. Over the past quarter, the stock rose +117%, fueled by improving gross margins, stable product demand, and analyst price target increases.
I've been following Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV)closely as a key player in outsourced sales, marketing, merchandising, sampling, and retailer support services for consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers and retailers across North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe. The company operates through three segments: Branded Services, Experiential Services, and Retailer Services. Its focus remains on optimizing in-store execution, boosting consumer engagement, and strengthening retail partnerships.
NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM) stands out as a leading provider of highly engineered products and support services that optimize oil and natural gas well construction, completions, and field development strategies. The company operates primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally, with a focus on fracturing systems, enhanced oil recovery, well construction products, and tracer diagnostics.