Bearish signals for Carvana (CVNA) from Tickeron’s A.I. Prediction tool
New-age car buying company Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) saw two potential bearish signs over the last few days. On March 1, the stock saw the daily stochastic readings make a bearish crossover as the indicators were in overbought territory. The 10-day RSI was also in overbought territory and fell that day.
The last time the RSI and stochastic readings were in overbought territory at the same time was in September. The stock was trading at an all-time high back then and then lost over half of its value in the fourth quarter. The stock has rallied since early February and that is what caused the oscillators to move in to overbought territory.
In addition to the bearish stochastics crossover, the Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bearish signal on Carvana on February 28. That signal had a confidence level of 66%, but the most impressive thing is that 94% of predictions of this kind have been accurate over the years.
Carvana’s fundamental indicators are all over the place. Earnings have been flat over the last three years and they were down 106% last quarter. Conversely, sales have increased by an average of 141% per year over the last three years.
The company doesn’t have a return on equity yet because it has been losing money ever since it went public. The profit margin is at -18.9%. The company just reported earnings on February 27 and the earnings missed estimates.
CVNA in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on May 05, 2023
CVNA moved above its 50-day moving average on May 05, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 26, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVNA as a result. In of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVNA just turned positive on May 05, 2023. Looking at past instances where CVNA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for CVNA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 10, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +2 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVNA advanced for three days, in of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 287 cases where CVNA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CVNA moved out of overbought territory on June 05, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVNA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CVNA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 01, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVNA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.396) is normal, around the industry mean (13.763). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.211). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.521). CVNA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.037). P/S Ratio (0.128) is also within normal values, averaging (69.877).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CVNA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a car dealer
Industry SpecialtyStores
CVNA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVNA has been loosely correlated with W. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVNA jumps, then W could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVNA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVNA | 100% | +5.07% | ||
| W - CVNA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.28% | ||
| JMIA - CVNA | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| VRM - CVNA | 62% Loosely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| WISH - CVNA | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.84% | ||
| ETSY - CVNA | 57% Loosely correlated | -2.75% | ||
More | ||||
