Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
Rick Pendergraft
published in Blogs
Feb 09, 2021
Bearish Signals Generated on 3 Real Estate ETFs

Bearish Signals Generated on 3 Real Estate ETFs

Interest rates in the U.S. have been rising over the last six months, not the Fed Funds rates that the Federal Reserve controls, but the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. If we look at a daily chart for the 10-year treasury yield, it has jumped from 0.504% last August to a recent high of 1.193%.

The trek higher has been steady and consistent. If this was a stock chart I was looking at, I would be looking to buy it the next time it cycled lower a little. You can see the trend line that connects the lows back to last August. It’s currently sitting right around 1.0%.

If you looked at the title of this article, you might be wondering what rising interest rates on treasuries have to do with real estate ETFs. The connection is that when the rates on less risky treasuries rise, other income generating investments become less appealing.

Like we see when bonds become less attractive, the price has to fall by enough to make the yield attractive again. This could be what the bearish signals are suggesting about the real estate ETFs—that the yield isn’t as attractive now because treasury yields have been rising.

Regardless of the reasoning, the three most actively traded real estate ETFs all generated bearish signals on February 5. Those signals came from the Tickeron A.I. trend prediction tool. The three ETFs are the iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE).

The bearish signals call for a decline of at least 4% over the next month, but there is a pretty significant difference in the confidence level between the three signals. The signal for the XLRE is 76% while the confidence levels on the other two are both at 54%.

Because these are ETFs, we don’t have the traditional fundamental indicators that we can break down, but the technical indicators are the same as with an individual stock. In the case of these three funds, they all three have seen bearish signals come from the RSI Indicator, the Aroon Indicator, and the Bollinger Bands indicator. It is also worth noting that all three are in overbought territory based on the daily stochastic indicators.

Looking back at the chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, it looks like it is ready for a short cycle lower at this time, so we could see the ETFs and the treasury yield move lower together.

The complete analysis and comparison of the three funds appears below. The information from Tickeron shows how the funds compare to one another as well as other ETFs and stocks.

 

Related Tickers: XLRE
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Mar 07, 2021
4 Tricks Hedge Funds Use to Get Ahead

4 Tricks Hedge Funds Use to Get Ahead

If the stock market were Major League Baseball, hedge funds and institutional investors would be the pros on championship teams while everyday self-directed investors (SDIs) are the benchwarmers in the minors.It’s how they get ahead, and it’s why 90% of SDIs lose money trying to play (invest and trade) in the major leagues. The 4 tricks we discuss below are rooted in one common theme: they all use Artificial Intelligence and algorithms to generate data and ideas.
John Jacques's Avatar
John Jacques
published in Blogs
Mar 22, 2018
A.I. Stock Market Predictions: Head & Shoulders

A.I. Stock Market Predictions: Head & Shoulders

Statistics for the Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Pattern The days where only hedge funds used algorithms to trade stocks are officially over. Now retail investors can use Artificial Intelligence (A.I.  Here’s an example of the algorithm in action: Late last year, Tickeron’s A.I.
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Jul 10, 2020
3 Stocks to Buy if Coronavirus Second Wave Hits

3 Stocks to Buy if Coronavirus Second Wave Hits

By analyzing market trends from the first wave, you can predict behavior for the second. Technology stocks have performed at historic levels this year, but the market is severely overbought.To compensate for that, look at performance during Q1 and Q2, the height of global Covid shutdowns.
Edward Flores's Avatar
Edward Flores
published in Blogs
Feb 06, 2021
How to Become the Millionaire Next Door

How to Become the Millionaire Next Door

The Golden Gate Bridge is always a fixture of these walks too, one of man's most beautiful creations.  As we were walking, at one point she turned to me and said, "Man, I'll never have a million dollars."" My girlfriend is 27 years old and works as a graphic designer, making about $75,000 a year.
Alla Petriaieva's Avatar
Alla Petriaieva
published in Blogs
Feb 23, 2021
Is Ethereum’s Bomb about to Explode?

Is Ethereum’s Bomb about to Explode?

Ethereum’s software is set for an update in October.Until it is finished, participants in the Ethereum blockchain must determine how to delay the difficulty bomb – code that necessitates a steadily increasing amount of computer power to mine blocks and unlock rewards – that is already in place.
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Aug 07, 2018
When Is the Next Recession Coming?

When Is the Next Recession Coming?

However, we also know that economists predicted 22 recessions out of 11 that took place since 1945. Are there real recession signs we should watch for?Indeed, the answer is yes, and here are a few very important ones: The first one is almost obvious and known to everyone – it is the Fed.
Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
Abhoy Sarkar
published in Blogs
May 22, 2020
Central banks have been buying $2.4 billion in assets every hour for the past two months

Central banks have been buying $2.4 billion in assets every hour for the past two months

Some $17.8 billion has been poured into  bond markets over the past week, the biggest move in more than three months.Around $3.5 billion has been invested into gold, the second largest on record. 
Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
Rick Pendergraft
published in Blogs
Feb 07, 2021
Mid-January Short Interest Report Shows 8 Stocks with Good Fundamentals and High Short Interest
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Mar 10, 2021
How to Start Trading Penny Stocks

How to Start Trading Penny Stocks

Penny stocks have long been marginalized within the professional investment community, oftentimes being painted with a broad brush of simply being “too risky.” Leonardo DiCaprio’s depiction of the penny stock peddling conman, Jordan Belfort, in the Wolf of Wall Street certainly didn’t help.Here are four reasons to start trading them now. Reason #1: Let’s State the Obvious -- Penny Stocks are Cheap A single share of Apple Inc. costs over $350.
Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
Abhoy Sarkar
published in Blogs
May 08, 2020
US unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%, the highest in series history

US unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%, the highest in series history

The U.S. economy’s employment fell by -20.5 million in April. The coronavirus crisis led to unemployment rate soaring to 14.7% in the U.S, the highest rate in the Bureau of Labor Statistics-tracked series history that goes back to 1948. However, the figures were better compared to several economists'/analysts' forecasts of 22 million job losses and 16% unemployment rate.  Another unemployment measure that includes those who have stopped looking for work as well as those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also touched an all-time high of 22.8%.