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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
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Feb 09, 2021

Bearish Signals Generated on 3 Real Estate ETFs

Interest rates in the U.S. have been rising over the last six months, not the Fed Funds rates that the Federal Reserve controls, but the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. If we look at a daily chart for the 10-year treasury yield, it has jumped from 0.504% last August to a recent high of 1.193%.

The trek higher has been steady and consistent. If this was a stock chart I was looking at, I would be looking to buy it the next time it cycled lower a little. You can see the trend line that connects the lows back to last August. It’s currently sitting right around 1.0%.

If you looked at the title of this article, you might be wondering what rising interest rates on treasuries have to do with real estate ETFs. The connection is that when the rates on less risky treasuries rise, other income generating investments become less appealing.

Like we see when bonds become less attractive, the price has to fall by enough to make the yield attractive again. This could be what the bearish signals are suggesting about the real estate ETFs—that the yield isn’t as attractive now because treasury yields have been rising.

Regardless of the reasoning, the three most actively traded real estate ETFs all generated bearish signals on February 5. Those signals came from the Tickeron A.I. trend prediction tool. The three ETFs are the iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE).

The bearish signals call for a decline of at least 4% over the next month, but there is a pretty significant difference in the confidence level between the three signals. The signal for the XLRE is 76% while the confidence levels on the other two are both at 54%.

Because these are ETFs, we don’t have the traditional fundamental indicators that we can break down, but the technical indicators are the same as with an individual stock. In the case of these three funds, they all three have seen bearish signals come from the RSI Indicator, the Aroon Indicator, and the Bollinger Bands indicator. It is also worth noting that all three are in overbought territory based on the daily stochastic indicators.

Looking back at the chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, it looks like it is ready for a short cycle lower at this time, so we could see the ETFs and the treasury yield move lower together.

The complete analysis and comparison of the three funds appears below. The information from Tickeron shows how the funds compare to one another as well as other ETFs and stocks.

 

Related Ticker: XLRE

XLRE's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Oscillator for XLRE moved out of overbought territory on May 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 40 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 23, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLRE as a result. In of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLRE turned negative on May 24, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

XLRE moved below its 50-day moving average on May 23, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLRE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XLRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The 10-day moving average for XLRE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLRE advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 281 cases where XLRE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are PROLOGIS (NYSE:PLD), American Tower Corp (NYSE:AMT), Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Real Estate Select Sector Index (the "index"). Under normal market conditions, the fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Real Estate companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR® ETF is 32.77B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 8.36B to 120.46B. PLD holds the highest valuation in this group at 120.46B. The lowest valued company is FRT at 8.36B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR® ETF was 1%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 58%. WELL experienced the highest price growth at -0%, while BXP experienced the biggest fall at -7%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR® ETF was 27%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -10% and the average quarterly volume growth was -47%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 77
P/E Growth Rating: 46
Price Growth Rating: 45
SMR Rating: 72
Profit Risk Rating: 67
Seasonality Score: 37 (-100 ... +100)
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XLREDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

Category RealEstate

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Real Estate
Address
One Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
Phone
N/A
Web
www.spdrs.com
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