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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jan 11, 2021

Big Banks Set to Kick Off Earnings Season with Mixed Results Expected

The fourth quarter earnings season has arrived and it will kick off with earnings reports from Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on January 15. The companies are expected to see earnings move in different directions compared to what we saw in the third quarter and compared to Q4 of last year.

Citigroup’s EPS estimate is $1.33 and that is 5% lower than the third quarter EPS figure and 38.14% lower than Q4 of 2019. JPMorgan’s EPS estimate is $2.57 which is in line with Q4 of 2019, but 12% lower than Q3. Wells Fargo has the best outlook with an EPS estimate of $0.59. That’s only a penny below the fourth quarter of last year and much better than $0.42 the company lost in the third quarter.

Bank stocks have been among the top performing industries since the end of October and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has gained 37.4% since then. The S&P is up a far more modest 17% during this same time period. Looking at the Tickeron Screener, JPMorgan gets a “strong buy” rating while the other two get “buy” ratings.

On the fundamental analysis, JPMorgan has two positive signals and two negative signals. The company gets positive marks for its Outlook Rating and its Profit vs. Risk Rating and it gets negative marks for its Valuation Rating and SMR Rating.

Citigroup gets a positive score in the Valuation Rating, but it gets four negative marks including the Outlook Rating and the SMR Rating. Wells Fargo gets a positive reading for its P/E Growth Rating, but it also gets four negative marks. The Profit vs. Risk Rating is a 100 and that’s the worst score a company can get. Like the other two, Wells Fargo also gets a poor score for its SMR Rating.

Turning our attention to the technical analysis, all three stocks have received bullish signals from the Momentum indicator over the last few weeks—not surprising given how bank stocks have been rallying. Citigroup got a bullish signal from its MACD indicator on January 8 and Wells Fargo got one on January 7. Those two also got bearish signals from the Bollinger Bands indicator on January 7.

The completer comparison from Tickeron between these three banks is below and it shows how the stocks compare to one another and how they compare to other stocks based on the ratings.

Related Ticker: KBE

Momentum Indicator for KBE turns positive, indicating new upward trend

KBE saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 18, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 77 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 77 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KBE just turned positive on June 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where KBE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KBE advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 271 cases where KBE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KBE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

KBE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 01, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), US Bancorp (NYSE:USB), PNC Financial Services Group (NYSE:PNC), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK), Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN), Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Banks Select Industry Index. The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the banks segment of the S&P Total Market Index (“S&P TMI”). The S&P TMI is designed to track the broad U.S. equity market. It may invest in equity securities that are not included in the index, cash and cash equivalents or money market instruments, such as repurchase agreements and money market funds.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the SPDR® S&P Bank ETF ETF is 19.99B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.1B to 573.02B. JPM holds the highest valuation in this group at 573.02B. The lowest valued company is PFS at 1.1B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Bank ETF ETF was 6%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 16%, and the average quarterly price growth was 62%. AX experienced the highest price growth at 8%, while NMIH experienced the biggest fall at -6%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Bank ETF ETF was -14%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 26% and the average quarterly volume growth was 9%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 69
P/E Growth Rating: 38
Price Growth Rating: 40
SMR Rating: 19
Profit Risk Rating: 40
Seasonality Score: 46 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: BANKS
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