Big Banks Set to Kick Off Earnings Season with Mixed Results Expected
The fourth quarter earnings season has arrived and it will kick off with earnings reports from Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on January 15. The companies are expected to see earnings move in different directions compared to what we saw in the third quarter and compared to Q4 of last year.
Citigroup’s EPS estimate is $1.33 and that is 5% lower than the third quarter EPS figure and 38.14% lower than Q4 of 2019. JPMorgan’s EPS estimate is $2.57 which is in line with Q4 of 2019, but 12% lower than Q3. Wells Fargo has the best outlook with an EPS estimate of $0.59. That’s only a penny below the fourth quarter of last year and much better than $0.42 the company lost in the third quarter.
Bank stocks have been among the top performing industries since the end of October and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has gained 37.4% since then. The S&P is up a far more modest 17% during this same time period. Looking at the Tickeron Screener, JPMorgan gets a “strong buy” rating while the other two get “buy” ratings.
On the fundamental analysis, JPMorgan has two positive signals and two negative signals. The company gets positive marks for its Outlook Rating and its Profit vs. Risk Rating and it gets negative marks for its Valuation Rating and SMR Rating.
Citigroup gets a positive score in the Valuation Rating, but it gets four negative marks including the Outlook Rating and the SMR Rating. Wells Fargo gets a positive reading for its P/E Growth Rating, but it also gets four negative marks. The Profit vs. Risk Rating is a 100 and that’s the worst score a company can get. Like the other two, Wells Fargo also gets a poor score for its SMR Rating.
Turning our attention to the technical analysis, all three stocks have received bullish signals from the Momentum indicator over the last few weeks—not surprising given how bank stocks have been rallying. Citigroup got a bullish signal from its MACD indicator on January 8 and Wells Fargo got one on January 7. Those two also got bearish signals from the Bollinger Bands indicator on January 7.
The completer comparison from Tickeron between these three banks is below and it shows how the stocks compare to one another and how they compare to other stocks based on the ratings.
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KBE's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for KBE entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 168 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 147 of the 168 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KBE as a result. In 66 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KBE turned negative on August 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
KBE moved below its 50-day moving average on August 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for KBE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KBE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for KBE's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +0.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KBE advanced for three days, in 258 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
KBE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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