Big Banks Set to Kick Off Earnings Season with Mixed Results Expected
The fourth quarter earnings season has arrived and it will kick off with earnings reports from Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on January 15. The companies are expected to see earnings move in different directions compared to what we saw in the third quarter and compared to Q4 of last year.
Citigroup’s EPS estimate is $1.33 and that is 5% lower than the third quarter EPS figure and 38.14% lower than Q4 of 2019. JPMorgan’s EPS estimate is $2.57 which is in line with Q4 of 2019, but 12% lower than Q3. Wells Fargo has the best outlook with an EPS estimate of $0.59. That’s only a penny below the fourth quarter of last year and much better than $0.42 the company lost in the third quarter.
Bank stocks have been among the top performing industries since the end of October and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has gained 37.4% since then. The S&P is up a far more modest 17% during this same time period. Looking at the Tickeron Screener, JPMorgan gets a “strong buy” rating while the other two get “buy” ratings.
On the fundamental analysis, JPMorgan has two positive signals and two negative signals. The company gets positive marks for its Outlook Rating and its Profit vs. Risk Rating and it gets negative marks for its Valuation Rating and SMR Rating.
Citigroup gets a positive score in the Valuation Rating, but it gets four negative marks including the Outlook Rating and the SMR Rating. Wells Fargo gets a positive reading for its P/E Growth Rating, but it also gets four negative marks. The Profit vs. Risk Rating is a 100 and that’s the worst score a company can get. Like the other two, Wells Fargo also gets a poor score for its SMR Rating.
Turning our attention to the technical analysis, all three stocks have received bullish signals from the Momentum indicator over the last few weeks—not surprising given how bank stocks have been rallying. Citigroup got a bullish signal from its MACD indicator on January 8 and Wells Fargo got one on January 7. Those two also got bearish signals from the Bollinger Bands indicator on January 7.
The completer comparison from Tickeron between these three banks is below and it shows how the stocks compare to one another and how they compare to other stocks based on the ratings.
KBE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KBE turned positive on June 24, 2024. Looking at past instances where KBE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
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