Blue Bird (BLBD, $9.39) posts Q4 loss
Blue Bird incurred a net loss of -$23.1 million, or -72 cents a share, for the three months ended Oct. widening from the year-ago quarter’s loss of -$2.4 million, or -9 cents a share.
Excluding one-time items, the loss per share was -66 cents, compared to analysts ‘ expectations of -5 cents loss a share (based on Factset poll). Revenue surged +34% year-over-year to $257.7 million, as bus sales grew $60.6 million on the back of a +28% increase in average sales price per unit.
For the full-year, Blue Bird has projected revenue between $900 million and $1 billion, compared to analysts’ forecasts of $999.6 million. (according to FactSet).
BLBD in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on May 12, 2023
BLBD moved above its 50-day moving average on May 12, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 49 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 30, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BLBD as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for BLBD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 12, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BLBD advanced for three days, in of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 231 cases where BLBD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BLBD moved out of overbought territory on May 24, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 58 cases where BLBD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BLBD turned negative on June 02, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BLBD declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
BLBD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 19, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BLBD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BLBD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BLBD's P/B Ratio (322.581) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (9.720). P/E Ratio (30.303) is within average values for comparable stocks, (96.234). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (5.911). BLBD has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.040). P/S Ratio (0.834) is also within normal values, averaging (74.415).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a manufacturer of and sells school buses
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BLBD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BLBD has been loosely correlated with F. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BLBD jumps, then F could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BLBD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 100% | +3.25% | ||
| F - BLBD | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.31% | ||
| GM - BLBD | 40% Loosely correlated | +3.82% | ||
| STLA - BLBD | 35% Loosely correlated | +2.52% | ||
| HMC - BLBD | 34% Loosely correlated | +2.60% | ||
| TM - BLBD | 29% Poorly correlated | +3.80% | ||
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