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Oct 10, 2019

Bounce off of an upwardly sloped trend line sets up potential showdown at $75 for ACWI ETF

The iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (Nasdaq: ACWI) bounced off of an upwardly sloped trend line this past week and has since turned higher. If the ETF continues to rally, it could be setting up a showdown at the $75 area.

First, the ACWI stands for All Country World Index. The ETF follows the index with equity investments in both developed and emerging market equities and in large-cap and mid-cap companies. To give you an idea of what types of holdings are in the ETF, the following table shows the top 10 holdings in terms of percentage of assets.

While the list is dominated by big name American companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, we also see an ETF that represents India’s overall market as well as Nestle.

Now that you have an idea of what the ETF’s holdings are made up of, let’s take a look at the chart.

We see on the daily chart that the ACWI tested the $75 area on three occasions in July before pulling back. The fund rallied from late August through mid-September and challenged the $75 level once again before pulling back in the last few weeks.

If we connect the lows from May and August, we get an upwardly sloped trend line and the fund came within a hair of that trend line this past week.

The overbought/oversold indicators hit oversold territory and then bounced at the end of the week. This certainly suggests that the fund is ready to rally again, but the $75 area is still looming as potential resistance once again. And we have to keep in mind that the third quarter earnings season will start next week.

In addition to the fund being oversold, the stock dropped below its lower Bollinger Band on October 01. According to the Tickeron technical analysis overview, in 39 of 41 cases where ACWI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

There is also this from Tickeron—the stochastic indicator suggests the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. In 43 of 51 cases where ACWI's stochastic indicator exited the oversold zone, it resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued uptrend are 84%.

The big jump on October 5 moved the ETF back above its 50-day moving average, which indicates a change from a downtrend to an uptrend. In 36 of 45 similar backtested cases where ACWI's price crossed above its 50-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 80%.

In order to get an idea of how the top holdings in the ACWI rank with their fundamentals, I ran the eight U.S. stocks on the list through Invest0r’s Business Daily scans—excluding Nestle and the India ETF. The average EPS rating for the other eight was 79.5 and that indicates pretty strong earnings growth for the group as a whole. All but one of the eight stocks got an A rating in the SMR category with the lone exception being Facebook which has a B rating.

Given this information, the ACWI’s top holdings certainly appear to have strong fundamentals at this time. That could bode well for the fund as we enter the next phase of earnings’ releases. Don’t be surprised if the fund breaks through the $75 level.

Related Ticker: ACWI

ACWI in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on October 14, 2024

ACWI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 33 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ACWI moved out of overbought territory on September 27, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 54 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ACWI as a result. In of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ACWI turned negative on October 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ACWI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 53 cases where ACWI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ACWI advanced for three days, in of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 365 cases where ACWI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (null:MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (null:NVDA), Apple (null:AAPL), Amazon.com (null:AMZN), Alphabet (null:GOOG), Alphabet (null:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (null:META), Broadcom Inc. (null:AVGO), Eli Lilly & Co (null:LLY), Walmart (null:WMT).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI ACWI composed of large- and mid-capitalization developed and emerging market equities. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging markets countries.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF ETF is 90.83B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 64.65K to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BAYN at 64.65K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF ETF was -1%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 10%. CLS experienced the highest price growth at 24%, while DSY experienced the biggest fall at -21%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF ETF was -3%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -20% and the average quarterly volume growth was -39%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 60
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 43
SMR Rating: 56
Profit Risk Rating: 47
Seasonality Score: 46 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

Category ForeignLargeBlend

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Global Large-Stock Blend
Address
iShares Trust400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
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