Bounce off of an upwardly sloped trend line sets up potential showdown at $75 for ACWI ETF
The iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (Nasdaq: ACWI) bounced off of an upwardly sloped trend line this past week and has since turned higher. If the ETF continues to rally, it could be setting up a showdown at the $75 area.
First, the ACWI stands for All Country World Index. The ETF follows the index with equity investments in both developed and emerging market equities and in large-cap and mid-cap companies. To give you an idea of what types of holdings are in the ETF, the following table shows the top 10 holdings in terms of percentage of assets.
While the list is dominated by big name American companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, we also see an ETF that represents India’s overall market as well as Nestle.
Now that you have an idea of what the ETF’s holdings are made up of, let’s take a look at the chart.
We see on the daily chart that the ACWI tested the $75 area on three occasions in July before pulling back. The fund rallied from late August through mid-September and challenged the $75 level once again before pulling back in the last few weeks.
If we connect the lows from May and August, we get an upwardly sloped trend line and the fund came within a hair of that trend line this past week.
The overbought/oversold indicators hit oversold territory and then bounced at the end of the week. This certainly suggests that the fund is ready to rally again, but the $75 area is still looming as potential resistance once again. And we have to keep in mind that the third quarter earnings season will start next week.
In addition to the fund being oversold, the stock dropped below its lower Bollinger Band on October 01. According to the Tickeron technical analysis overview, in 39 of 41 cases where ACWI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
There is also this from Tickeron—the stochastic indicator suggests the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. In 43 of 51 cases where ACWI's stochastic indicator exited the oversold zone, it resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued uptrend are 84%.
The big jump on October 5 moved the ETF back above its 50-day moving average, which indicates a change from a downtrend to an uptrend. In 36 of 45 similar backtested cases where ACWI's price crossed above its 50-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 80%.
In order to get an idea of how the top holdings in the ACWI rank with their fundamentals, I ran the eight U.S. stocks on the list through Invest0r’s Business Daily scans—excluding Nestle and the India ETF. The average EPS rating for the other eight was 79.5 and that indicates pretty strong earnings growth for the group as a whole. All but one of the eight stocks got an A rating in the SMR category with the lone exception being Facebook which has a B rating.
Given this information, the ACWI’s top holdings certainly appear to have strong fundamentals at this time. That could bode well for the fund as we enter the next phase of earnings’ releases. Don’t be surprised if the fund breaks through the $75 level.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
ACWI's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ACWI turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where ACWI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 46 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
ACWI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ACWI advanced for three days, in 289 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
ACWI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 50 of 66 cases where ACWI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ACWI as a result. In 57 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The 10-day moving average for ACWI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ACWI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for ACWI entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Category ForeignLargeBlend
Advertisement