Brazil ETF could be entering a buy zone
The Brazilian market has lagged other major American markets over the last month and it has underperformed the overall emerging market index. The selling that has hit Brazilian stocks could be providing a buying opportunity for the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ).
The ETF has been trending higher since last September and a trend channel has formed that defines the different cycles within the overall trend. The upper rail connects the high from last October with the highs from January and July of this year. The lows from last September and this past May connect in a parallel lower rail.
The EWZ has pulled back over the last six weeks and got down close to the lower rail, but appears to have found support at its 52-week moving average. The fund briefly dipped below the 52-week in May, but quickly rallied back with a gain of over 30% in only eight weeks. The lower rail is slightly below the 52-week and it is in close proximity to the 104-week moving average.
The weekly overbought/oversold indicators were in or close to overbought territory in early July, but the pullback over the last six weeks has brought them back down toward the middle of the range.
Looking at the daily chart, we see that the EWZ has been hovering right around the lower Bollinger Band over the last eight trading days. The fund briefly dropped below the lower band on several occasions. The indicators looked similar back in May just before the huge rally. According to the Tickeron Technical Analysis overview, in 35 of 45 cases where EWZ's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 78%.
The daily stochastic readings have been in oversold territory quite a bit during the month of August and they just made a bullish crossover on August 21. This could also be a positive sign for the fund.
Another potential positive sign for the EWZ is the fact that Tickeron’s Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for the fund on August 19. The signal showed a confidence level of 70% and it calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the EWZ have been successful 94% of the time.
From a fundamental perspective, we don’t have the traditional indicators to look at like we do with a stock. However, looking at the Brazilian economy as a whole, the economy has been struggling in recent years and that led to the election of pro-business President Bolsonaro back in February. There have been some grumblings that things are changing fast enough, but the new administration has only been in place for six months and during the last six months we have seen a lot of turmoil in the global markets and in trade.
Brazil could be a major benefactor in the trade war between the United States and China. Two of the biggest exports for Brazil are soybeans and iron ore. Grains and steel have been at the center of the trade war, and that includes the ones with Canada and Mexico as well.
EWZ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on March 12, 2025
EWZ moved above its 50-day moving average on March 12, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 51 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 71 cases where EWZ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for EWZ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 14, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 179 cases where EWZ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EWZ moved out of overbought territory on March 20, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 31, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EWZ as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EWZ turned negative on March 31, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
EWZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 14, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Industry description
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Category LatinAmericaStock