GET DAILY SIGNALSBrazil ETF (EWZ) gets bearish signal while hitting downward sloped trend line
Over the last four months, the Brazilian stock market has been trading in a different rhythm from the rest of the world’s markets. It has been trending lower since late January/early February while most of the others have been moving higher with the exception of the last month.
The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) peaked on January 31 and then again on March 19. Connecting these two peaks creates a downward sloped trend line and the ETF just hit that trend line on June 4. The fund turned lower the next day and looks like it might be heading lower once again.
The overbought/oversold indicators were both hitting overbought territory before the stock turned lower. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 5 indicating that another leg lower was possible.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for the EWZ on June 4 and the signal showed a confidence level of 88%. The signal calls for a decline in the ETF of at least 4% over the coming month. Previous predictions on the EWZ have been successful 91% of the time.
Brazil’s economy has been struggling after the election of pro-business President Jair Bolsonaro. Initially, the Brazilian market was outperforming the majority of world markets, but that outperformance has come to a screeching halt.
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EWZ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026
EWZ moved above its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 43 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in 277 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EWZ moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 39 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 49 of 57 cases where EWZ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EWZ as a result. In 70 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EWZ turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
EWZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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