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published in Blogs
Jun 06, 2019

Brazil ETF (EWZ) gets bearish signal while hitting downward sloped trend line

Over the last four months, the Brazilian stock market has been trading in a different rhythm from the rest of the world’s markets. It has been trending lower since late January/early February while most of the others have been moving higher with the exception of the last month.

The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) peaked on January 31 and then again on March 19. Connecting these two peaks creates a downward sloped trend line and the ETF just hit that trend line on June 4. The fund turned lower the next day and looks like it might be heading lower once again.

The overbought/oversold indicators were both hitting overbought territory before the stock turned lower. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 5 indicating that another leg lower was possible.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for the EWZ on June 4 and the signal showed a confidence level of 88%. The signal calls for a decline in the ETF of at least 4% over the coming month. Previous predictions on the EWZ have been successful 91% of the time.

Brazil’s economy has been struggling after the election of pro-business President Jair Bolsonaro. Initially, the Brazilian market was outperforming the majority of world markets, but that outperformance has come to a screeching halt.

Related Ticker: EWZ

EWZ's Stochastic Oscillator stays in overbought zone for 5 days

The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day moving average for EWZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 24, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for EWZ entered a downward trend on February 21, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where EWZ's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 16, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EWZ as a result. In of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EWZ just turned positive on February 16, 2024. Looking at past instances where EWZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

EWZ moved above its 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

EWZ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid- capitalization segments of the equity market in Brazil. The fund is non-diversified.
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

Category LatinAmericaStock

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Latin America Stock
Address
iShares, Inc.400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
N/A
Web
www.ishares.com
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EWZ and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EWZ has been closely correlated with ILF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 95% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EWZ jumps, then ILF could also see price increases.

1D
1W
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6M
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Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To EWZ
1D Price
Change %
EWZ100%
+2.37%
ILF - EWZ
95%
Closely correlated
+1.77%
FLBR - EWZ
91%
Closely correlated
+2.45%
EWZS - EWZ
91%
Closely correlated
+3.29%
FLLA - EWZ
89%
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+1.65%
FBZ - EWZ
88%
Closely correlated
+2.27%
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