Brazil ETF (EWZ) gets bearish signal while hitting downward sloped trend line
Over the last four months, the Brazilian stock market has been trading in a different rhythm from the rest of the world’s markets. It has been trending lower since late January/early February while most of the others have been moving higher with the exception of the last month.
The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) peaked on January 31 and then again on March 19. Connecting these two peaks creates a downward sloped trend line and the ETF just hit that trend line on June 4. The fund turned lower the next day and looks like it might be heading lower once again.
The overbought/oversold indicators were both hitting overbought territory before the stock turned lower. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 5 indicating that another leg lower was possible.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for the EWZ on June 4 and the signal showed a confidence level of 88%. The signal calls for a decline in the ETF of at least 4% over the coming month. Previous predictions on the EWZ have been successful 91% of the time.
Brazil’s economy has been struggling after the election of pro-business President Jair Bolsonaro. Initially, the Brazilian market was outperforming the majority of world markets, but that outperformance has come to a screeching halt.
Momentum Indicator for EWZ turns negative, indicating new downward trend
EWZ saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 08, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 90 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
EWZ moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EWZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for EWZ entered a downward trend on September 23, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
EWZ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 1.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 87%.
Industry description
General Information
Category LatinAmericaStock