Brazil ETF (EWZ) gets bearish signal while hitting downward sloped trend line
Over the last four months, the Brazilian stock market has been trading in a different rhythm from the rest of the world’s markets. It has been trending lower since late January/early February while most of the others have been moving higher with the exception of the last month.
The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) peaked on January 31 and then again on March 19. Connecting these two peaks creates a downward sloped trend line and the ETF just hit that trend line on June 4. The fund turned lower the next day and looks like it might be heading lower once again.
The overbought/oversold indicators were both hitting overbought territory before the stock turned lower. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 5 indicating that another leg lower was possible.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for the EWZ on June 4 and the signal showed a confidence level of 88%. The signal calls for a decline in the ETF of at least 4% over the coming month. Previous predictions on the EWZ have been successful 91% of the time.
Brazil’s economy has been struggling after the election of pro-business President Jair Bolsonaro. Initially, the Brazilian market was outperforming the majority of world markets, but that outperformance has come to a screeching halt.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
EWZ's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EWZ turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where EWZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 45 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EWZ as a result. In 70 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
EWZ moved above its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EWZ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The 50-day moving average for EWZ moved above the 200-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +15.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in 276 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 218 of 239 cases where EWZ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
EWZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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