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Oct 21, 2019

Breakout or breakdown for technology ETF with 3 top holdings set to report?

The Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK) saw two potential bearish signals generated in the last few trading days and these signals are coming as the earnings reports for the sector are getting ready to hit.

On October 17, the daily stochastic readings for the XLK made a bearish crossover as the indicators were in overbought territory. The fund did fall on October 18, but of course the overall market dropped significantly that day as well.

The XLK also saw a bearish signal generated from the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine on October 18. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month and it showed a confidence level of 71%. Past predictions for the fund have been successful 71% of the time.

The timing of the bearish signals is rather interesting as the tech sector is gearing up for a number of big earnings reports in the coming weeks. For the XLK, the top five holdings are all expected to report before the end of October and three of them are set to report in the week ahead—Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Visa (NYSE: V), and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC).

Microsoft will report on Wednesday, October 23 while Intel and Visa will report on Thursday, October 24. Microsoft is the largest holding in the XLK with a weighting of 19.55%, Visa is the third largest holding with a weighting of 5.47%, and Intel is the fifth largest holding with a weighting of 4.2%.

In order to compare the companies and look at how they rank compared to other stocks in all industries, I put together the following table. The ratings that are highlighted green are areas where the companies rank in the top quartile and the red ones represent areas of concern.

We see that all three companies rank in the top quartile in the Tickeron SMR rating scale. The SMR measures sales growth, profit margin, and return on equity. Being in the top quartile means the company is doing relatively well. Looking at the other categories we see that both Intel and Microsoft rank highly as far as the valuation ratings while Microsoft and Visa rate highly in the Profit vs. Risk rating scale.

The only two areas of concern are Visa’s valuation rating and Microsoft’s P/E Growth rating. I should also point out that Intel is expected to see earnings decline for the third quarter of 2019 compared to 2018.

Looking at the daily charts for the three stocks, all three saw their daily stochastic readings make bearish crossovers out of overbought territory in the last few days—like the XLK itself. As for the weekly charts, none of the three are in overbought or oversold territory. Intel and Microsoft’s stochastic readings are up near overbought territory while Visa’s weekly stochastic indicators are in the 45 range at this time.

Turning our attention to the sentiment towards these three stocks, you would expect the indicators to show a bullish skew simply because the companies have performed well and the stocks have all performed above average in terms of price performance. The one stock that does have some bearish sentiment directed toward it is Intel. The analysts are rather skeptical of the stock with only 13 out of 42 analysts ranking it as a “buy”. The buy percentage is only 31% and that is well below average.

The analysts’ ratings for Microsoft and Visa are both extremely skewed toward the bullish side with buy percentages of 93.8% and 92.1%, respectively. This could make the stocks a little more vulnerable to a pullback should the companies disappoint in any way.

The short interest ratio for Visa is a little higher than average and that could help the stock if the company disappoints.

All three of these companies look pretty solid, but as we know, when it comes to earnings reports any little thing can be made in to a big deal and can cause the stock to move sharply in either direction.

Related Ticker: XLK

XLK in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on February 09, 2024

XLK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 09, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 47 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLK moved out of overbought territory on February 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLK turned negative on February 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 28, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLK as a result. In of 64 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLK advanced for three days, in of 358 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 437 cases where XLK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Accenture PLC (NYSE:ACN), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO).

Industry description

The investment seeks investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Technology Select Sector Index. In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy, which means that the fund typically invests in substantially all of the securities represented in the index in approximately the same proportions as the index. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF is 273.32B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 11.01B to 3.07T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.07T. The lowest valued company is FFIV at 11.01B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was 1%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 18%. PANW experienced the highest price growth at 16%, while MPWR experienced the biggest fall at -3%.


The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was 3%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 22% and the average quarterly volume growth was 54%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 66
P/E Growth Rating: 47
Price Growth Rating: 33
SMR Rating: 41
Profit Risk Rating: 34
Seasonality Score: 39 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: TECHNOLOGY ETFs
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General Information

Category Technology

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XLK and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XLK has been closely correlated with FTEC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XLK jumps, then FTEC could also see price increases.

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