Bullish Signal for China ETF Shows 90% Confidence Level
Tuesday saw a bullish signal generated on the X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR). The fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in securities of issuers that comprise the underlying index. The underlying index is designed to reflect the price fluctuation and performance of the China A-Share market and is composed of the 300 largest and most liquid stocks in the China A-Share market. The underlying index includes small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap stocks.
The signal came just after the fund hit a short-term trend line on Friday. It also came as the fund was flirting with oversold territory based on the daily stochastic indicators. The indicators made a bullish crossover on Tuesday.
Since hitting a low of $24.13, the ASHR has gained approximately 60% as China’s economy and market have rebounded. The virus hit China earlier as it originated there and that led to a contraction in the country’s GDP in Q1. That was the first ever contraction in the GDP since the country opened up its economy and tracking of the indicator started in 1992.
China’s GDP dropped 10% in the first quarter and that was a far more modest contraction than what we saw in most countries. The GDP grew by 11.7% in the second quarter and by 2.7% in Q3. By comparison the U.S. saw its GDP contract by 5% in the first quarter and by 31.4% in the second quarter. The U.S. saw a huge comeback in Q3 with growth of 33.1%.
Because China’s economy wasn’t hit as hard, neither was its stock market. The ASHR fell 16.8% from the beginning of the year through its low in March. The S&P dropped 30.8% over the same period. On a year-to-date basis, through December 15, the ASHR is up 30.1% while the S&P 500 is only up 14.4%.
Tickeron’s Scorecard rates ASHR as a “buy” at this time. Part of the reason for the “buy” rating is the positioning of the moving averages. The 10-day Moving Average for the fund crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2020. The 50-day is currently above the 200-day and has been since early July.
For the full rundown on the X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF click on the ticker below.
ASHR's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASHR turned positive on June 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where ASHR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 23, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ASHR as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for ASHR moved above the 200-day moving average on June 30, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASHR advanced for three days, in of 256 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 171 cases where ASHR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ASHR moved out of overbought territory on July 09, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 19 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 19 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASHR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ASHR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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General Information
Category PacificAsiaexJapanStk
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