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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 30, 2019

Bullish signal on Brazil ETF as it hits the lower rail of a channel

Over the last six months, Brazil’s stock market has performed as well, if not better, than any market in the world. The Bovespa is up almost 19% during that time. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) is one ETF that represents the Brazilian market and it is up 22.5% while the S&P 500 is actually down 3.4%.

The EWZ has formed a trend channel over the last eight months and the recent pullback has put the fund in contact with the lower rail of the channel. The fund jumped sharply on March 28 and that caused the daily stochastic readings to make a bullish crossover after reaching oversold territory.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on the EWZ on March 27 and that signal showed a confidence level of 70%. More impressively, past predictions on the EWZ have been successful 90% of the time. This signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month.

Brazil has benefitted from the different trade wars the United States has had with Mexico, Canada, and China. Agriculture products and steel have been at the center of the trade disputes and with tariffs being threatened and placed on some goods, Brazil has been the beneficiary. Two of Brazil’s biggest exports are soybeans and iron ore.

Related Ticker: EWZ

EWZ's RSI Indicator remains in oversold zone for 5 days

The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 17 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

EWZ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EWZ as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EWZ turned negative on May 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

EWZ moved below its 50-day moving average on May 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for EWZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 21, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for EWZ moved below the 200-day moving average on May 23, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for EWZ entered a downward trend on June 14, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid- capitalization segments of the equity market in Brazil. The fund is non-diversified.
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General Information

Category LatinAmericaStock

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Latin America Stock
Address
iShares, Inc.400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
N/A
Web
www.ishares.com
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