The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on application software firm Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) on February 7 and that was the day after the company reported earnings. The prediction came with a 70% confidence level and previous predictions on Fortinet have been accurate 68% of the time.
The company reported earnings per share of $0.59 and that exceeded the $0.51 consensus estimate. Fortinet also beat on the top line with revenue of $507 million while the estimate was for $496 million.
Something that stood out about Fortinet’s earnings report from some of the other tech companies was how China was impacting the company. Many other tech firms have lowered forecast and have cited the economic slowdown in China or the trade war. Fortinet doesn’t seem to have been phased by it.
The bullish signal from the AI prediction tool if for a gain of 2% over the next week, but looking at the weekly chart leads me to believe that we could see an even greater move to the upside.
The stock pulled down to its 52-week moving average during the fourth quarter, but it seemed to use the trend line as support and has since reversed. The stock has moved higher in each of the last three weeks, but it hasn’t shot up so much that the overbought/oversold indicators have jumped up to overbought territory.
We see that the 10-week RSI is at 60.17 currently and the weekly stochastic readings are at 71.22 and 53.65. Even if the stochastic readings do move in to overbought territory, it isn’t necessarily a bad sign. You can see that the readings were above the 80 level from November ’17 through September ’18.
Fortinet is one of the recommended holdings in the 20/20 Portfolio, my model portfolio here on Tickeron.
FTNT saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 09, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 12, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FTNT as a result. In of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
FTNT moved below its 50-day moving average on April 08, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FTNT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 12, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FTNT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FTNT advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
FTNT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FTNT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FTNT's P/B Ratio (555.556) is slightly higher than the industry average of (29.847). P/E Ratio (46.445) is within average values for comparable stocks, (155.253). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.825) is also within normal values, averaging (2.725). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.070) is also within normal values, averaging (55.178).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of threat management and network security solutions
Industry PackagedSoftware