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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Nov 07, 2019

Can Trip.com break out of its downward trend?

Chinese travel website operator Trip.com International (Nasdaq: TCOM) has seen its stock trend lower since peaking just above $60 in July 2017. From the peak to the trough, the stock lost nearly 60% of its value. The company is set to report earnings on November 13 and investors will be hoping the company can break out of its downward trend.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $0.29 per share for the quarter and that is down 31% from the $0.42 the company earned a year ago. Ctrip reported earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter as sales increased by 15%. Analysts expect earnings for 2019 as a whole to drop 13% while sales are expected to increase by 10.7%.

The company's management efficiency measurements are mixed with the return on equity (6.5%) being below average and the profit margin (20.3%) is slightly above average.

Adding these figures up, the Tickeron SMR rating for Ctrip is 26, indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for Ctrip is also strong with a reading of 7 and points to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.

Still other fundamental readings point to below average results for Ctrip. The Valuation Rating is at 66 and indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Ctrip is 87 and that indicates that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CTRP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.

Looking at the daily chart for Ctrip we see that the highs from April and July connect to form a downward sloped trend line and the stock is just below that trend line at this time. If we draw a parallel lower rail we see that the lows from August and October connect as well.

The daily overbought/oversold indicators are in overbought territory and at their highest levels since the spring. The stochastic readings did make a bearish crossover on November 4 and that could be a short-term bearish signal.

Tickeron's Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on Ctrip on November 1. The signal showed a confidence level of 80% and it shows that 81% of past predictions have been accurate. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month.

One particular area of analysis that concerns me is the sentiment. The fundamentals are a little mixed with earnings declining, sales increasing, and a split on the ROE and profit margin. In addition, the stock is trending lower. With this in mind, I would expect to see neutral to slightly bearish sentiment, but that isn't the case at all.

There are 38 analysts covering the stock with 27 "buy" ratings, nine "hold" ratings, and two "sell" ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 71% and that is right in the middle of the average range.

The short interest ratio is low at 1.72 and that indicates excessive optimism. When you combine this with the analysts' ratings, you get a slightly optimistic skew to the overall sentiment and I'm not sure Ctrip deserves that much optimism right now.

Related Ticker: TRV

Aroon Indicator for TRV shows an upward move is likely

TRV's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on April 15, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 288 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 288 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TRV's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 06, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TRV as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TRV just turned positive on May 06, 2024. Looking at past instances where TRV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TRV advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 65 cases where TRV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TRV moved below its 50-day moving average on April 17, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for TRV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 19, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TRV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 07, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. TRV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.098) is normal, around the industry mean (2.168). P/E Ratio (17.839) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.462). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.704) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.281) is also within normal values, averaging (1.421).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Industry description

Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry is 14.53B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 93.9K to 121.13B. PGR holds the highest valuation in this group at 121.13B. The lowest valued company is UNAM at 93.9K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 28%. OXBR experienced the highest price growth at 49%, while CNFR experienced the biggest fall at -13%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry was 35%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -19% and the average quarterly volume growth was 7%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 66
Price Growth Rating: 44
SMR Rating: 87
Profit Risk Rating: 57
Seasonality Score: 18 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of commercial, personal property and casualty insurance products

Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Property Or Casualty Insurance
Address
485 Lexington Avenue
Phone
+1 917 778-6000
Employees
33300
Web
https://www.travelers.com
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