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published in Blogs
Nov 07, 2019

Can Trip.com break out of its downward trend?

Chinese travel website operator Trip.com International (Nasdaq: TCOM) has seen its stock trend lower since peaking just above $60 in July 2017. From the peak to the trough, the stock lost nearly 60% of its value. The company is set to report earnings on November 13 and investors will be hoping the company can break out of its downward trend.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $0.29 per share for the quarter and that is down 31% from the $0.42 the company earned a year ago. Ctrip reported earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter as sales increased by 15%. Analysts expect earnings for 2019 as a whole to drop 13% while sales are expected to increase by 10.7%.

The company's management efficiency measurements are mixed with the return on equity (6.5%) being below average and the profit margin (20.3%) is slightly above average.

Adding these figures up, the Tickeron SMR rating for Ctrip is 26, indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for Ctrip is also strong with a reading of 7 and points to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.

Still other fundamental readings point to below average results for Ctrip. The Valuation Rating is at 66 and indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Ctrip is 87 and that indicates that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CTRP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.

Looking at the daily chart for Ctrip we see that the highs from April and July connect to form a downward sloped trend line and the stock is just below that trend line at this time. If we draw a parallel lower rail we see that the lows from August and October connect as well.

The daily overbought/oversold indicators are in overbought territory and at their highest levels since the spring. The stochastic readings did make a bearish crossover on November 4 and that could be a short-term bearish signal.

Tickeron's Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on Ctrip on November 1. The signal showed a confidence level of 80% and it shows that 81% of past predictions have been accurate. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month.

One particular area of analysis that concerns me is the sentiment. The fundamentals are a little mixed with earnings declining, sales increasing, and a split on the ROE and profit margin. In addition, the stock is trending lower. With this in mind, I would expect to see neutral to slightly bearish sentiment, but that isn't the case at all.

There are 38 analysts covering the stock with 27 "buy" ratings, nine "hold" ratings, and two "sell" ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 71% and that is right in the middle of the average range.

The short interest ratio is low at 1.72 and that indicates excessive optimism. When you combine this with the analysts' ratings, you get a slightly optimistic skew to the overall sentiment and I'm not sure Ctrip deserves that much optimism right now.

Related Ticker: TRV

TRV's Stochastic Oscillator sits in overbought zone for 6 days

The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TRV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 13, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TRV as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TRV just turned positive on March 27, 2024. Looking at past instances where TRV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TRV advanced for three days, in of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 310 cases where TRV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. TRV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.104) is normal, around the industry mean (2.148). P/E Ratio (17.891) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.327). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.706) is also within normal values, averaging (1.036). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.284) is also within normal values, averaging (1.415).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Industry description

Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry is 14.65B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 93.9K to 120.74B. PGR holds the highest valuation in this group at 120.74B. The lowest valued company is UNAM at 93.9K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 26%. MHLD experienced the highest price growth at 14%, while TILCF experienced the biggest fall at -17%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry was -6%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -17% and the average quarterly volume growth was -9%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 48
P/E Growth Rating: 63
Price Growth Rating: 45
SMR Rating: 89
Profit Risk Rating: 59
Seasonality Score: 7 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of commercial, personal property and casualty insurance products

Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Property Or Casualty Insurance
Address
485 Lexington Avenue
Phone
+1 917 778-6000
Employees
33300
Web
https://www.travelers.com
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