Can Trip.com break out of its downward trend?
Chinese travel website operator Trip.com International (Nasdaq: TCOM) has seen its stock trend lower since peaking just above $60 in July 2017. From the peak to the trough, the stock lost nearly 60% of its value. The company is set to report earnings on November 13 and investors will be hoping the company can break out of its downward trend.
Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $0.29 per share for the quarter and that is down 31% from the $0.42 the company earned a year ago. Ctrip reported earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter as sales increased by 15%. Analysts expect earnings for 2019 as a whole to drop 13% while sales are expected to increase by 10.7%.
The company's management efficiency measurements are mixed with the return on equity (6.5%) being below average and the profit margin (20.3%) is slightly above average.
Adding these figures up, the Tickeron SMR rating for Ctrip is 26, indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for Ctrip is also strong with a reading of 7 and points to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.
Still other fundamental readings point to below average results for Ctrip. The Valuation Rating is at 66 and indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Ctrip is 87 and that indicates that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CTRP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
Looking at the daily chart for Ctrip we see that the highs from April and July connect to form a downward sloped trend line and the stock is just below that trend line at this time. If we draw a parallel lower rail we see that the lows from August and October connect as well.
The daily overbought/oversold indicators are in overbought territory and at their highest levels since the spring. The stochastic readings did make a bearish crossover on November 4 and that could be a short-term bearish signal.
Tickeron's Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on Ctrip on November 1. The signal showed a confidence level of 80% and it shows that 81% of past predictions have been accurate. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month.
One particular area of analysis that concerns me is the sentiment. The fundamentals are a little mixed with earnings declining, sales increasing, and a split on the ROE and profit margin. In addition, the stock is trending lower. With this in mind, I would expect to see neutral to slightly bearish sentiment, but that isn't the case at all.
There are 38 analysts covering the stock with 27 "buy" ratings, nine "hold" ratings, and two "sell" ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 71% and that is right in the middle of the average range.
The short interest ratio is low at 1.72 and that indicates excessive optimism. When you combine this with the analysts' ratings, you get a slightly optimistic skew to the overall sentiment and I'm not sure Ctrip deserves that much optimism right now.
