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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Oct 31, 2019

Can Wynn Resorts break out of downward trend with earnings announcement?

Casino operator Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) is set to report third quarter earnings results on November 6 and the stock will be looking to break out of a downward trend with the results.

The stock has been trending lower since peaking in April and if we connect the high from April and July, we get a downward sloped trend line that is currently just below $130. The daily overbought/oversold indicators are in overbought territory and the daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on October 30.

The chart shows the downward sloped trend line, but it also shows a pretty strong support level at the $102.50 level. The stock has dropped to this area at the beginning of June, in mid-August, and again in early October. It would take a pretty big drop to get the stock back down to this area after the earnings report, but that could happen over the course of the coming weeks.

You can attribute the decline in the stock price to the fundamentals of the company. The company saw earnings decline by 6% in the second quarter and analysts expect earnings to decline by 17% for 2019 as a whole. As for the third quarter, the consensus estimate is for the company to report EPS of $0.90 and that is a huge drop from last year's third quarter EPS of $1.68.

Revenue grew by 3% in the second quarter and it has grown by 21% per year over the last three years. Analysts expect revenue to grow by 0.7% for 2019.

Wynn's management efficiency measurements are well above average with a return on equity of 46.9% and a profit margin of 14.5%. When you combine these figures with the sales growth for the company, you get an SMR rating from Tickeron of 37. This indicates that the company is slightly above average in terms of sales growth, profit margin, and return on Equity. The rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted sales, income margin and return on equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Unfortunately for Wynn this is one of the few indicators where the company ranks above average. The Tickeron Valuation Rating is at 74 and that indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Wynn is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Wynn’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.

When it comes to earnings announcements, I have found that the sentiment indicators become more important than usual as they tell you what the investment community expects. If expectations are too high, the company has a hard time satisfying everyone. If the expectations are low, it's easy to impress investors.

Unfortunately for Wynn, the sentiment is rather bullish at this time. There are 18 analysts covering the stock at this time with 13 "buy" ratings and five "hold" ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 72.2%. This is in the average range, but with the stock trending lower and the fundamentals being rather weak, that might be too high. The short interest ratio is a paltry 1.8 so the odds of a short covering rally are rather low.

Related Ticker: WYNN

WYNN sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for WYNN moved below the 200-day moving average on June 27, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WYNN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for WYNN entered a downward trend on July 17, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where WYNN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 61 cases where WYNN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WYNN just turned positive on July 16, 2024. Looking at past instances where WYNN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WYNN advanced for three days, in of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

WYNN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 83%.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WYNN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: WYNN's P/B Ratio (103.093) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (12.161). P/E Ratio (16.859) is within average values for comparable stocks, (63.313). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.301) is also within normal values, averaging (1.549). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.841) is also within normal values, averaging (5.745).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WYNN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE:LVS), MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), Wynn Resorts Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN), Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ:MLCO).

Industry description

Casinos/Gaming includes companies that operate casinos, gaming services, horse racing and harness racing facilities. Think Las Vegas Sands Corp., MGM Resorts International and Wynn Resorts, Ltd. In periods of strong economic growth, consumers tend to spend on discretionary/leisure activities like gambling or games; but consumption is likely to slow down when there’s economic sluggishness.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Casinos/Gaming Industry is 5.51B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 152.98K to 38.96B. LVS holds the highest valuation in this group at 38.96B. The lowest valued company is ROBK at 152.98K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Casinos/Gaming Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -0%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3%. LTRY experienced the highest price growth at 48%, while AAPI experienced the biggest fall at -98%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Casinos/Gaming Industry was 33%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -2% and the average quarterly volume growth was -3%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 67
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 72
Profit Risk Rating: 84
Seasonality Score: -6 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a high-end casinos & resorts company

Industry CasinosGaming

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Casinos Or Gaming
Address
3131 Las Vegas Boulevard South
Phone
+1 702 770-7555
Employees
27800
Web
https://www.wynnresorts.com
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