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May 29, 2019
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS, $36.66 ) misses fiscal Q4 revenue expectations; shares drop -22%

Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS, $36.66 ) misses fiscal Q4 revenue expectations; shares drop -22%

Canada Goose Holdings’ fiscal fourth quarter revenue fell short of analysts’ expectations, leading to the company’s shares falling -22% Wednesday.

While the outdoor clothing maker’s revenue surged +25% year-over-year to C$156.2 million in the quarter, it still missed analysts' estimates of C$156.8 million.

However, adjusted earnings of  9 Canadian cents a share surpassed analysts' estimates of 6 Canadian cents.

For the full year, total revenue climbed +40.5% to C$830.5 million. Net income came in at C$143.6 million for the year, compared with the preceding year’s C$96.1 million. According to Canada Goose, higher operating income and a lower effective tax rate contributed to the net income growth.

Looking ahead into fiscal 2020, Canada Goose Holdings expects annual revenue growth of at least +20%.

 

 

Related Ticker: GOOS

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


Momentum Indicator for GOOS turns positive, indicating new upward trend

GOOS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 65 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 76%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GOOS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 37 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOOS just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GOOS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.

Following a +1.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOOS advanced for three days, in 182 of 271 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

GOOS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 48 of 56 cases where GOOS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.

The Aroon Indicator for GOOS entered a downward trend on September 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.016) is normal, around the industry mean (5.929). P/E Ratio (18.403) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.594). GOOS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.220) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.686). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.664) is also within normal values, averaging (0.827).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GOOS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GOOS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are VF Corp (NYSE:VFC), G-III Apparel Group Ltd (NASDAQ:GIII), Canada Goose Holdings (NYSE:GOOS), Lakeland Industries (NASDAQ:LAKE).

Industry description

Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Industry is 2.71B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.66K to 25.98B. HMRZF holds the highest valuation in this group at 25.98B. The lowest valued company is SQBGQ at 1.66K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -8%, and the average quarterly price growth was 7%. VNCE experienced the highest price growth at 21%, while NCI experienced the biggest fall at -29%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Industry was 15%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 35% and the average quarterly volume growth was 47%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 54
Price Growth Rating: 65
SMR Rating: 71
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: 31 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a manufacturer of outerwear for men, women and children

Industry ApparelFootwear

Industry
Apparel Or Footwear
Address
100 Queens Quay East
Phone
+1 416 780-9850
Employees
4552
Web
https://www.canadagoose.com
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