Carnival (CCL, $25.04) will buy back up to $2 billion of 11.5% senior secured notes due 2023
On Monday, Cruise company Carnival began a tender offer to purchase up to $2 billion of 11.5% senior secured notes due 2023. The company could issue new first-priority debt to finance the buyback.
Carnival issued the notes in April 2020 to boost its cash reserves, as the COVID pandemic wreaked havoc on the cruise industry. The offer on the notes pays back holders $1.1125 on the dollar.
Last week, Carnival revealed that it may sell up to $500 million of shares, and would use the funds to buy ordinary shares of Carnival Plc, trading in the U.K., and for general purposes.
The company announced last month that it plans to have all 91 of its ships back to service by next spring.
CCL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CCL entered a downward trend on May 11, 2022. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 171 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 122 of the 171 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 71%.
Current price $14.09 is below $15.32 the lowest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 04/13/22 - 05/16/22, the price experienced a -28% Downtrend. During the week of 05/09/22 - 05/16/22, the stock fell -0.35%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 26, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CCL as a result. In 56 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CCL turned negative on April 25, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
CCL moved below its 50-day Moving Average on April 21, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CCL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 14 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CCL advanced for three days, in 176 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
CCL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 77%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.44.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CCL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.628) is normal, around the industry mean (25.243). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (41.376). CCL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.419). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.049) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.619) is also within normal values, averaging (25.267).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Other consumer services include companies that provide consumer services, and are not classified elsewhere. Travel fare aggregators, hotel bookings, consumer-to-consumer or business-to-business sales platforms are some examples of services that can be clubbed into this category. Many of such services have expanded online. Booking Holdings Inc, The Priceline Group Inc, and eBay Inc. are some major operators in this segment.
The average market capitalization across the Other Consumer Services Industry is 5.9B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.4K to 85.4B. BKNG holds the highest valuation in this group at 85.4B. The lowest valued company is YSGG at 1.4K.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Other Consumer Services Industry was -2.28%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.57%. HRB experienced the highest price growth at 27.66%, while AMIHD experienced the biggest fall at -54.18%.
- 4/27/22 5:34 AM: Carnival (CCL, $17.5) was a top loser this week, declining -12.1%
- 4/8/22 4:30 AM: Carnival (CCL, $18.74) was a top loser this week, declining -7.32%
- 3/30/22 5:33 AM: Carnival (CCL, $19.93) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.28% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Other Consumer Services Industry was 13.02%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 54.64% and the average quarterly volume growth was 19.85%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Stocks in the group have a Negative Outlook today, backed by the MA200MA50 Indicator. Tickeron has a negative outlook on this group and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 45%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.28.
15 stocks in the group of tickers exhibit a similar negative trend based on the 15 indicator with an average likelihood of 73%.
The most notable companies in this group are Marriott International (NASDAQ:MAR), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (NYSE:HLT), Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL), Huazhu Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT).
The average market capitalization across the group is 7.5B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 0 to 54.5B. MAR holds the highest valuation in this group at 54.5B. The lowest valued company is LEIC at 0.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was 0.76%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -14.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.43%. GHG experienced the highest price growth at 22.8%, while TH experienced the biggest fall at -12.17%.
- 5/14/22 4:23 AM: Huazhu Group (HTHT, $29.52) was a top weekly gainer, with a +10.27% jump
- 5/10/22 5:36 AM: Marriott International (MAR, $163.85) was a top loser this week, declining -8.02%
- 5/7/22 5:28 AM: Mandarin Oriental (MAORF, $2) was a top loser this week, declining -5.84%
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was 88.61%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 12.65% and the average quarterly volume growth was 180.65%
- 5/5/22 4:51 AM: The volume for Playa Hotels & Resorts stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 227% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
- 2/17/22 6:17 AM: The volume for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 207% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
- 2/17/22 6:17 AM: The volume for Hyatt Hotels stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 212% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows