Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, $121.46) Crawls Down as Outlook Falls Short of Expectations
Caterpillar Inc.’s (CAT) shares fell more than 8% on Tuesday, as the mining and construction equipment maker again showed signs of weakness tied to rising steel and input costs -- which ultimately bear connection to U.S. tariffs.
Caterpillar has already lost nearly 21% of its market value in October, as analysts were disappointed with earnings and its outlook for the rest of the year. As tariffs boosted metal costs and trade frictions fueled demand concerns, Caterpillar was largely unable to pass these costs on -- eroding profitability.
Caterpillar in its recent government filing revealed that the company lost nearly $40 million in third quarter of 2018 owing solely to the recently imposed tariffs. For the full-year, the company is expecting tariff-related losses in the range of $100 million to $200 million on the lower-end. To minimize the impact of the rising raw material prices, the company has already informed all its dealers there would be an increase in prices in the range of 1% to 4% worldwide starting January 2019.
Despite posting a satisfactory earnings number in Q3 2018, a choppy future outlook has proven negative for Caterpillar. Total sales and revenue for Caterpillar stood at $13.5 billion for Q3 2018 compared to $14 billion in the previous quarter.
Momentum Indicator for CAT turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CAT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 24, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 72 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 54 of the 72 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CAT just turned positive on September 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where CAT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
CAT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CAT advanced for three days, in 276 of 375 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 211 of 311 cases where CAT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
CAT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CAT's P/B Ratio (19.417) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.582). P/E Ratio (35.312) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.809). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.435) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. CAT's P/S Ratio (4.892) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.128).
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General Information
a manufacturer of mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines and industrial gas turbines
Industry TrucksConstructionFarmMachinery
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