Centene’s trend is to the downside despite solid fundamentals
Centene Corp. (NYSE: CNC) is a healthcare insurance provider that specializes in government-subsidized plans such as Medicaid. The stock has been trending lower since the beginning of December and has not been able to shake its downtrend the way the rest of the market has.
Looking at the daily chart, connecting the highs from December and February we get the upper rail of a downward sloping trend channel. The stock just brushed the upper rail this week and turned lower the next day.
The daily stochastic readings just hit overbought territory and turned lower, causing a bearish crossover from the indicators. We saw a similar scenario in April before the stock dropped over 20%.
The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bearish signal toward Centene on May 8. The signal calls for a decline of at least 2.5% over the next week and it showed a confidence level of 65%. Previous predictions on Centene have been successful 69% of the time.
The fundamentals for Centene are mixed as the earnings and sales growth have been strong, but the management efficiency measurements are below average. Earnings have grown by an average of 29% per year over the last three years while sales have increased at a rate of 31%. Those are both well above average.
The return on equity is at 15.9% and the profit margin is only 3.4%. Both of these figures are below average.
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CNC in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CNC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CNC as a result. In 61 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CNC turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
CNC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
CNC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 57 cases where CNC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +5.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNC advanced for three days, in 190 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 145 of 225 cases where CNC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CNC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CNC's P/B Ratio (1.369) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.247). P/E Ratio (9.063) is within average values for comparable stocks, (139.958). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.754) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CNC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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a multi-line healthcare enterprise
Industry ManagedHealthCare
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