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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 10, 2019

Centene’s trend is to the downside despite solid fundamentals

Centene Corp. (NYSE: CNC) is a healthcare insurance provider that specializes in government-subsidized plans such as Medicaid. The stock has been trending lower since the beginning of December and has not been able to shake its downtrend the way the rest of the market has.

Looking at the daily chart, connecting the highs from December and February we get the upper rail of a downward sloping trend channel. The stock just brushed the upper rail this week and turned lower the next day.

The daily stochastic readings just hit overbought territory and turned lower, causing a bearish crossover from the indicators. We saw a similar scenario in April before the stock dropped over 20%.

The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bearish signal toward Centene on May 8. The signal calls for a decline of at least 2.5% over the next week and it showed a confidence level of 65%. Previous predictions on Centene have been successful 69% of the time.

The fundamentals for Centene are mixed as the earnings and sales growth have been strong, but the management efficiency measurements are below average. Earnings have grown by an average of 29% per year over the last three years while sales have increased at a rate of 31%. Those are both well above average.

The return on equity is at 15.9% and the profit margin is only 3.4%. Both of these figures are below average.

Related Ticker: CNC

CNC in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on May 31, 2024

The 10-day moving average for CNC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 31, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 14, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CNC as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CNC turned negative on May 24, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

CNC moved below its 50-day moving average on May 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNC declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CNC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNC advanced for three days, in of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

CNC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CNC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.609) is normal, around the industry mean (3.063). P/E Ratio (15.707) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.509). CNC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.750) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.089). CNC has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.276) is also within normal values, averaging (0.684).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Unitedhealth Group (NYSE:UNH), Elevance Health (NYSE:ELV), Cigna Group (The) (NYSE:CI), CVS HEALTH Corp (NYSE:CVS), Humana (NYSE:HUM), Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC).

Industry description

Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Managed Health Care Industry is 68.32B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 3.42M to 451.47B. UNH holds the highest valuation in this group at 451.47B. The lowest valued company is HRAA at 3.42M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Managed Health Care Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 10%, and the average quarterly price growth was 9%. IHGP experienced the highest price growth at 32%, while PFHO experienced the biggest fall at -3%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Managed Health Care Industry was -13%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -30% and the average quarterly volume growth was -54%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 41
P/E Growth Rating: 69
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 66
Seasonality Score: 6 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a multi-line healthcare enterprise

Industry ManagedHealthCare

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Managed Health Care
Address
7700 Forsyth Boulevard
Phone
+1 314 725-4477
Employees
67700
Web
https://www.centene.com
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