Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Declines -23.6% Over 30 Days on OpenAI Shift and Lockup Pressure
Key Takeaways
- Cerebras Systems (CBRS) fell roughly 23.6% over the last 30 days, from a closing price of $191.93 on September 11, 2026 to $146.61 on October 12, 2026.
- The sharpest declines followed reports that OpenAI's "Ultrafast" inference mode would run on Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs rather than Cerebras wafer-scale hardware.
- Post-IPO lockup expirations and insider selling added supply pressure, with about 19.4 million shares (roughly 8% of shares outstanding) becoming eligible for sale on September 30.
- The company still holds a roughly $25.4 billion contracted backlog, and analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus with an average price target near $291.
- Third-quarter results — guided to $214 million to $216 million in core revenue — are the next key test of the company's OpenAI relationship.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Company Background and Competitive Standing
Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS) is an artificial intelligence infrastructure company founded in 2015 and headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. The company is best known for its Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE), a single AI processor built across an entire silicon wafer rather than cut into individual chips. This "dinner-plate-sized" design is intended to deliver higher performance for AI inference and generative AI workloads than traditional GPU clusters by reducing networking bottlenecks, latency, and power constraints.
Cerebras generates revenue by selling its wafer-scale processors and CS-3 systems, and by providing customers with cloud-based access to its hardware for inference. Its customers include hyperscalers, foundation model labs, AI-native businesses, enterprises, and sovereign AI initiatives. The company went public on May 14, 2026 at $185 per share and is positioned as a direct challenger to Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD in the market for AI compute. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
CBRS Stock Performance Over the Past 30 Days and Quarter
Over the last 30 days, CBRS has declined about 23.6%, falling from a close of $191.93 on September 11, 2026 to an intraday price of $146.61 on October 12, 2026. The move accelerated in late September and early October, when the stock posted several single-session declines, including an 8.9% drop on September 30.
The last quarter tells a similar story of a broader pullback. Over the trailing three months, the stock has fallen roughly 24%, extending a retreat from the enthusiasm surrounding its debut. Cerebras closed its first trading day on May 14, 2026 near $311 and reached an intraday high of $386.34 that day. Since those post-IPO levels, the shares have lost more than half their value as the initial premium unwound.
Factors Behind the Recent 30-Day Move in CBRS
The dominant catalyst was a report from semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis, published on September 30, stating that OpenAI's newest "Ultrafast" mode for its GPT-6.1 Sol model would run on Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs instead of Cerebras chips. CNBC subsequently reported that Cerebras had lost the OpenAI workload to Nvidia, raising questions about the company's dependence on its anchor customer and its multi-year, multibillion-dollar inference agreement with OpenAI.
Supply pressures compounded the selloff. Cerebras used a staggered post-IPO lockup schedule rather than a standard 180-day cliff. About 19.4 million shares became eligible for sale on September 30, and company officers filed Form 144 notices covering roughly $84.3 million in stock. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Feldman and Chief Technology Officer Sean Lie had already sold more than $240 million in Class A shares between August 20 and September 25.
Not all signals were negative. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted on October 2 that Cerebras "is a close partner," and Freedom Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Buy with a $209 price target, citing the decline as a buying opportunity. Reuters also reported on September 28 that Cerebras would supply AI chips and hardware to cloud startup Gimlet Labs. Broader weakness in semiconductor stocks added further pressure. From what I see, the OpenAI relationship remains central to near-term sentiment.
Drivers of CBRS Performance Across the Last Quarter
The quarterly trend reflects a reset of an elevated post-IPO valuation rather than a deterioration in the underlying business. On August 12, Cerebras reported second-quarter core revenue of $209.9 million, up 103% year over year, and beat earnings estimates by $0.12 per share. Cloud and other services revenue rose 287% to $127.7 million, driven by the expanding OpenAI deployment. Management guided third-quarter core revenue to $214 million to $216 million and reported $25.4 billion in remaining performance obligations.
However, the stock entered the quarter trading at an extremely rich multiple relative to sales, leaving little room for uncertainty about customer concentration. The staggered lockup releases — with additional tranches scheduled through October — created a recurring supply overhang that repeatedly pressured the shares even as fundamentals improved. The OpenAI hardware reports then crystallized investor concerns about how much of the company's growth depends on a single customer. I’m watching this closely as earnings approach.
Key Items on the Horizon for CBRS Investors
Investors are likely to focus on several near-term factors. Third-quarter 2026 results — expected in mid-November — will show whether core revenue lands within the $214 million to $216 million guidance range and whether management addresses the reported OpenAI workload shift. Additional lockup releases scheduled for October 14 and October 28 may continue to influence supply dynamics.
Longer term, watch for the general availability of Cerebras' service on Amazon (AMZN) Web Services, expected in the first quarter of 2027, and the ramp of the Gimlet Labs deployment, both of which could reduce customer concentration. Analyst price targets, macroeconomic conditions affecting AI capital spending, and competition from Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD will also shape sentiment. These are factors to monitor, not a forecast or recommendation.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CBRS's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 6 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
CBRS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CBRS as a result. In 8 of 8 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CBRS turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 1 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 1 of the 1 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
CBRS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for CBRS entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CBRS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.105) is normal, around the industry mean (7.975). CBRS has a moderately high P/E Ratio (470.757) as compared to the industry average of (165.532). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (63.694) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CBRS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
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