China ETF (MCHI) Trending Lower Within Descending Channel
Chinese stocks have struggled throughout 2018. China’s economic growth rate has slowed, and the United States and China have been locked in a trade war. The trade dispute rhetoric really started at the end of January and since that time the Shanghai Composite Index has lost over -24%.
Well-known names like Weibo and JD.com have dropped over 50% since January 26. This is the date when President Trump escalated his trade talks.
One China ETF that has been caught in the downward trend is the iShares MSCI China ETF (Nasdaq: MCHI). The daily chart shows how the ETF has cycled lower over the last five months with a clear upper rail and lower rail forming a channel.
The formation of the upper rail coincides with the overbought readings from the stochastic readings and the bearish crossover in the readings. It is also worth noting that the upper rail is in close proximity to the 50-day moving average which could act as two layers of resistance for the fund.
The MCHI just hit the upper rail of the channel on Friday and then turned lower on Monday, which suggests we could be looking at the next cycle lower over the coming days.
MCHI in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on June 23, 2026
MCHI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 43 cases where MCHI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MCHI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 24, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCHI as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCHI just turned positive on July 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 67 cases where MCHI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCHI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for MCHI entered a downward trend on July 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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