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Feb 11, 2019
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China festive spending slows in 2019

China festive spending slows in 2019

China’s Lunar New Year registered underwhelming growth in consumer spending. At around 1.01 trillion yuan ($149 billion), consumers spent +8.5% more than they did during the previous year’s holiday season on retail and catering – but the growth rate was the slowest in atleast 8 years (based on Ministry of Commerce data).

China’ slowdown in economic growth, trade tensions with the U.S. and the nation’s plans to reduce debt apparently pulled back momentum of people’s spending appetite.

Auto purchases in the nation declined for the first time in almost three decades. Even tourist venues in the nation experienced a deceleration to +8.2 % growth in consumer spending (according to the state broadcaster CCTV  citing data from the Ministry of Commerce), which is slower than the +12.6% rise last year. 

Related Ticker: MCHI

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


MCHI's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory

The RSI Indicator for MCHI moved out of oversold territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 30 of the 33 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 54 of 68 cases where MCHI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCHI just turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 43 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.

Following a +1.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCHI advanced for three days, in 212 of 261 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

MCHI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MCHI as a result. In 75 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.

The Aroon Indicator for MCHI entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD), H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME), Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS), TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI China Index. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market capitalization of the Chinese equity securities markets, as represented by the H-shares and B-shares markets. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) ETF is 17.6B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 505.99M to 114.11B. PDD holds the highest valuation in this group at 114.11B. The lowest valued company is HKD at 505.99M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) ETF was 14%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 23%, and the average quarterly price growth was 29%. TME experienced the highest price growth at 6%, while USD experienced the biggest fall at -14%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) ETF was 22%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 3% and the average quarterly volume growth was -21%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 38
P/E Growth Rating: 84
Price Growth Rating: 59
SMR Rating: 54
Profit Risk Rating: 90
Seasonality Score: 10 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

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Category
Greater China Region
Address
iShares Trust400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
415-670-2000
Web
www.ishares.com
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