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published in Blogs
Sep 03, 2018
China's Debt Story

China's Debt Story

According to estimates by Standard Chartered Plc., China’s share in global debt tripled last year from its 2009 levels.

During the global recession of 2009, China’s debt -- corporate, household and government – was 6.1 percent of the global total. In 2017, it was 18 percent, Standard Chartered analysis shows. China now ranks as the third most ‘indebted’ nation in terms of its share in global debt, following the U.S. and the euro area.

Standard Chartered projects China’s debt-to-GDP ratio rising to about 290 percent by the end of 2020, compared to 270 percent as of March 31.

Related Ticker: CBON

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


Aroon Indicator for CBON shows an upward move is likely

CBON's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 23, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 288 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 141 of the 288 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 49%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a +0.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CBON advanced for three days, in 127 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 19 of 74 cases where CBON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 26%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CBON as a result. In 24 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 26%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CBON turned negative on September 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 34%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.

Industry description

The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the FTSE Chinese Broad Bond 0-10 Years Diversified Select Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index is calculated by FTSE Russell Ltd. and is entirely comprised of fixed-rate, Renminbi-denominated bonds issued in the People’s Republic of China (“China” or the “PRC”) by Chinese credit, governmental and quasi-governmental (e.g.,policy banks) issuers (“RMB Bonds”) with a maturity of 0-10 years. The fund is non-diversified.
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