China's October Exports Jumped +16% Year-over-Year, Even Against U.S. Tariffs - How?
Notwithstanding a searing trade war with the U.S., China’s exporters experienced a strong October.
Chinese exports surged +16% in October compared to the year-ago period. That was faster than the preceding month’s year-over-year growth rate, even as October was the first full month when the U.S. implemented new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The tariff rate, which is now 10% on these goods, will be hiked to 25% by the end of the year – something that could have potentially accelerated demand for Chinese exports in October, before prices increase further.
Another possible factor behind the export boost could be a weakening Chinese yuan, which lost almost -10% in value against the U.S. dollar since February. A lower yuan could be a tailwind to Chinese goods’ competitiveness in global trade, thereby potentially mitigating the headwinds posed by tariffs. But given that Chinese authorities/regulators are apparently taking steps to stabilize the yuan and arrest excessive short-selling in the currency, coupled with the slated hike in U.S. tariff rates on Chinese goods, it remains to be seen how long China’s export growth can continue. A lot could also hinge on the outcome of the scheduled trade talk between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping later this month when they would be attending the G20 summit in Buenos Aires.
USDCNY saw its Stochastic Oscillator leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for USDCNY moved out of overbought territory on July 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In of the 81 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator for USDCNY entered a downward trend on July 05, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 08, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on USDCNY as a result. In of 128 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for USDCNY just turned positive on June 19, 2025. Looking at past instances where USDCNY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 100 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
USDCNY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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