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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 26, 2019

Chinese internet ETF hits downward-sloped trend line

Over the last few weeks there have been several Chinese internet firms that have reported strong earnings for the second quarter. Companies like Alibaba, Baozun and JD.com have all turned in strong quarterly results, but the stocks haven’t been able to break out even after the earnings reports. This reflects the overall downward trend for the stocks in the industry.

The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (AMEX: KWEB) reflects how the industry has been moving lower. We see on the daily chart that the high from May connects with the high from July to form a downward sloped trend line. The stock hit the trend line again this past week before turning lower.

You can also see how the 50-day moving average is right in the same area as the trend line and that could act as a secondary layer of resistance going forward.

The daily stochastic readings had hit overbought territory after rallying from the low earlier this month. The indicators turned lower on August 23 and they made a bearish crossover as a result.

In addition to the bearish crossover from the daily stochastic readings, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on the fund on August 23. The signal showed a confidence level of 64% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on KWEB have been successful 86% of the time.

Looking at the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview, there are a couple of other indicators that are pointing to a downward move for KWEB. The price moved below its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a reversal from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 21 of 25 cases where KWEB's price crossed below its 50-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 84%.

The 10-day Moving Average for KWEB crossed below its 50-day Moving Average on August 05, 2019. This can be construed as a sell signal, indicating that the trend is shifting lower. In 9 of 14 cases where KWEB's 10-day Moving Average crossed below its 50-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 64%.

From a fundamental perspective, there are several factors at work that are hurting Chinese internet stocks. The ongoing trade war with the United States is certainly taking a toll and with China introducing new tariffs on U.S. goods on August 23, it doesn’t look like we are anywhere close to an agreement. Secondly, the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong is weighing on the minds of investors. The protests have been going on for several months and they are presenting issues with the current two-system structure that is in place. The biggest concern here is that it has hurt the Chinese Yuan and the exchange rate is the lowest it has been in decades. One last factor is the slowing Chinese economy. The GDP growth rate has been growing at a much slower pace in the last few years compared to what the growth rate was 10 to 15 years ago.

Looking at the EPS ratings for some of the top holdings in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, I was able to pull up eight of the top 10 on Investor’s Business Daily. There were some strong ones from Alibaba and JD.com, but those were offset by low ones for companies like Pinduoduo, Baidu, and Tencent Music. The average EPS rating for the eight companies was just under 60.

I ran the same numbers for the top 10 holdings in the SPDR S&P Internet ETF (XWEB) and the average EPS rating was 74.

Related Ticker: KWEB

Momentum Indicator for KWEB turns negative, indicating new downward trend

KWEB saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on May 23, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 92 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for KWEB moved out of overbought territory on May 21, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KWEB turned negative on May 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KWEB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

KWEB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 02, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

KWEB moved above its 50-day moving average on April 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KWEB advanced for three days, in of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 218 cases where KWEB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME), Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS), TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL), iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ), Weibo Corp (NASDAQ:WB), JOJOYY (NASDAQ:YY).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index. The fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets in instruments in its underlying index or in instruments that have economic characteristics similar to those in the underlying index. The index is designed to measure the equity market performance of investable publicly traded "China-based companies" whose primary business or businesses are in the Internet and Internet-related sectors, and are listed outside of Mainland China, as determined by the index provider. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ETF is 23.55B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.87B to 218.83B. PDD holds the highest valuation in this group at 218.83B. The lowest valued company is YY at 1.87B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ETF was -7%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 6%. PDD experienced the highest price growth at 8%, while BEKE experienced the biggest fall at -14%.


The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ETF was -18%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 14% and the average quarterly volume growth was 45%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 48
P/E Growth Rating: 65
Price Growth Rating: 47
SMR Rating: 58
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: -2 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I. Advisor
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General Information

Category PacificAsiaexJapanStk

China Region
152 West 57th Street, 16th Floor New York, New York 10019KRANESHARES TRUSTNew York
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