Chipotle (CMG, $598.91) overwhelmingly beats earnings estimate; many analysts raise price target
Many analysts raised their price targets for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s stock, following the company’s solid earnings and sales report.
On Wednesday, the fast-food chain of restaurants reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, which far outpaced the $1.37 a share figure expected by analysts (based on Refinitiv data).
Revenues of $1.23 billion for the quarter beat estimate of $1.194 billion. The company’s same-store sales growth of +6.1% exceeded analysts’ expected +4.49%. (based on Refinitiv data).
Chipotle’s digital orders surged +65.9% in the quarter, and contributed to 12.9% of its sales. Chipotle is reportedly upping the ante on its online market, by upgrading its kitchens, boosting pickup shelves for displaying online orders, and testing out its drive-through windows services that allow customers to pick up what they ordered online.
Several analysts seem to believe that there’s strong potential in the restaurant chain’s recent performance. Morgan Stanley, for example upgraded its price target for Chipotle stock to $617 from $600. Bank of America raised the target to $400 from $340. J.P. Morgan revised it to $550 from $500. However, some analysts, such as Goldman Sachs, were somewhat cautious on their outlook on the stock.
The stock was up more than +13% in early trading Thursday.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CMG's RSI Oscillator dives into oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for CMG moved into overbought territory on October 05, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 55 cases where CMG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMG advanced for three days, in 197 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
CMG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMG as a result. In 46 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMG turned negative on September 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
CMG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CMG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The 50-day moving average for CMG moved below the 200-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMG entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CMG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (18.315) is normal, around the industry mean (5.328). P/E Ratio (29.491) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.418) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.551) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CMG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants
Industry Restaurants
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