Chipotle (CMG, $645.67) warns of $15 million cost spike and upto 30 bps margin decline, should tariffs on Mexican imports get implemented
Chipotle Mexican Grill feels that tariffs on Mexican imports could raise costs and squeeze margins.
The chain of fast casual restaurants told CNBC that if U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico gets implemented, the company’s costs could increase by $15 million in 2019, while its margins could get slashed by 20 to 30 basis points.
CFO Jack Hartung mentioned in a statement that Chipotle might consider covering the higher costs through a “modest” price hike on their items, among other potential solutions - should the tariffs become permanent.
Hartung emphasized that the company is committed to its “integrity principles”. He indicated that while premashed or processed avocados would probably be cheaper, the company would continue to use fresh ingredients as it is unwilling to short-change customers on quality and taste.
The tariffs on Mexican imports could gradually increase and could potentially get to as high as 25% this year, if Trump ends up implementing his plan.
CMG in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on July 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CMG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
CMG moved above its 50-day moving average on June 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMG advanced for three days, in of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 243 cases where CMG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMG moved out of overbought territory on July 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMG as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMG turned negative on July 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CMG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CMG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CMG's P/B Ratio (17.637) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.842). P/E Ratio (30.394) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.615). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.783) is also within normal values, averaging (1.727). CMG has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.027). P/S Ratio (3.625) is also within normal values, averaging (1.871).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CMG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants
Industry Restaurants
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