GET DAILY SIGNALSChipotle (CMG, $645.67) warns of $15 million cost spike and upto 30 bps margin decline, should tariffs on Mexican imports get implemented
Chipotle Mexican Grill feels that tariffs on Mexican imports could raise costs and squeeze margins.
The chain of fast casual restaurants told CNBC that if U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico gets implemented, the company’s costs could increase by $15 million in 2019, while its margins could get slashed by 20 to 30 basis points.
CFO Jack Hartung mentioned in a statement that Chipotle might consider covering the higher costs through a “modest” price hike on their items, among other potential solutions - should the tariffs become permanent.
Hartung emphasized that the company is committed to its “integrity principles”. He indicated that while premashed or processed avocados would probably be cheaper, the company would continue to use fresh ingredients as it is unwilling to short-change customers on quality and taste.
The tariffs on Mexican imports could gradually increase and could potentially get to as high as 25% this year, if Trump ends up implementing his plan.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CMG in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
CMG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 36 cases where CMG's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CMG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 30 of 37 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMG as a result. In 49 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMG just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +11.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMG advanced for three days, in 196 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMG entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CMG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (18.345) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.425). P/E Ratio (29.257) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.418) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.551) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CMG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants
Industry Restaurants
Advertisement