Chipotle (CMG, $676.21) delivers an excellent fiscal first quarter
Chipotle Mexican Grill’s first fiscal quarter report reveals estimate-beating results with net income coming at $88.1 million, or $3.13 per share, up from $59.4 million, or $2.13 per share a year earlier.
Other key highlights of the quarter include: $3.40 adjusted earnings per share versus expected $3.01, revenue at $1.31 billion versus expected $1.27 billion, same-store sales growth of 9.9% versus expected 7.29%, 13.9% rise of net sales to $1.31 billion versus expected $1.27 billion, and 100.7% rise of digital sales growth during the quarter accounting for 15.7% of total sales.
Another key highlight of the quarter includes the success of Chipotle’s points-based loyalty program that crossed 1 million subscriptions a week after its launch in March. However, the loyalty program is only one part of the company’s digital strategy as it partnered with a third-party delivery service called DoorDarsh that saw customer retention even after the promotion ended.
For the fifth consecutive quarter, Chipotle reported same-store sales growth driven by a 5.8% increase in restaurant transactions. The company has now raised its same-store sales growth outlook for 2019 now forecasting mid-to-high single-digit sales growth at stores open at least a year.
The company closed down 2 stores at different locations during the quarter, but opened 15 new stores during the quarter, bringing its total restaurant count to 2,504. Further, Chipotle reiterated its forecast of opening between 140 to 155 stores during 2019.
Aroon Indicator for CMG shows an upward move is likely
CMG's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on June 01, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 333 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 333 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 50 cases where CMG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMG advanced for three days, in of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMG moved out of overbought territory on May 23, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 02, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMG as a result. In of 66 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMG turned negative on May 12, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CMG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 18, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CMG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (22.936) is normal, around the industry mean (8.694). P/E Ratio (55.866) is within average values for comparable stocks, (163.145). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.051) is also within normal values, averaging (2.118). CMG has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.032). P/S Ratio (6.414) is also within normal values, averaging (50.707).
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants
Industry Restaurants
CMG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMG has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CMG jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 100% | -0.97% | ||
| FRSH - CMG | 61% Loosely correlated | +1.16% | ||
| DRI - CMG | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| CNNE - CMG | 52% Loosely correlated | +3.01% | ||
| SBUX - CMG | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.03% | ||
| TXRH - CMG | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.96% | ||
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