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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 29, 2019

Ciena Corp. hit the lower rail of an upward sloped channel and a bullish signal was triggered at the same time

Ciena Corporation (NYSE: CIEN) provides hardware, software, and services for networking systems worldwide. The company has seen its stock trend higher since the fourth quarter of 2017. Over the last 11 months, the stock has been moving higher within a trend channel.

The stock moved above the upper rail of the trend channel in February but pulled back in March and that brought the stock down to the lower rail of the channel. We see on the daily chart that the stock is in oversold territory based on the stochastic readings, but the indicators made a bullish crossover on March 26.

The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Ciena on March 25 and that signal calls for a 4% increase in the price of the stock over the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 89%. Previous predictions on the stock have been accurate 80% of the time.

The fundamentals for Ciena show mixed results. Earnings grew by 120% in the most recent earnings report, but they had been declining by an average of 1% per year over the last three years.

Sales jumped by 20% in the most recent quarter and have been growing by an average of 8% per year over the last three years. The company’s return on equity is average at 10.4% and so is the profit margin at 9.2%.

Related Ticker: CIEN

CIEN in -0.95% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on May 17, 2024

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CIEN declined for three days, in of 287 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 59 cases where CIEN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CIEN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 24, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CIEN as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CIEN just turned positive on April 24, 2024. Looking at past instances where CIEN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

CIEN moved above its 50-day moving average on May 14, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for CIEN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 15, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CIEN advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 214 cases where CIEN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CIEN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.433) is normal, around the industry mean (9.833). P/E Ratio (31.942) is within average values for comparable stocks, (88.227). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.728). CIEN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (1.672) is also within normal values, averaging (23.832).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CIEN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE:HPE), Nokia Corp (NYSE:NOK), Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC), Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR), Ciena Corp (NYSE:CIEN), Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE), CommScope Holding Company (NASDAQ:COMM).

Industry description

The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Telecommunications Equipment Industry is 4.48B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.59K to 202.5B. CSCO holds the highest valuation in this group at 202.5B. The lowest valued company is ABILF at 1.59K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. MINM experienced the highest price growth at 23%, while AKTS experienced the biggest fall at -42%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry was -19%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 1% and the average quarterly volume growth was 185%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 48
P/E Growth Rating: 63
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 82
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: 21 (-100 ... +100)
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CIENDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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published General Information

General Information

a provider of communication network equipment, associated software and professional services

Industry TelecommunicationsEquipment

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Telecommunications Equipment
Address
7035 Ridge Road
Phone
+1 410 694-5700
Employees
8483
Web
https://www.ciena.com
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