Ciena Corp. hit the lower rail of an upward sloped channel and a bullish signal was triggered at the same time
Ciena Corporation (NYSE: CIEN) provides hardware, software, and services for networking systems worldwide. The company has seen its stock trend higher since the fourth quarter of 2017. Over the last 11 months, the stock has been moving higher within a trend channel.
The stock moved above the upper rail of the trend channel in February but pulled back in March and that brought the stock down to the lower rail of the channel. We see on the daily chart that the stock is in oversold territory based on the stochastic readings, but the indicators made a bullish crossover on March 26.
The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Ciena on March 25 and that signal calls for a 4% increase in the price of the stock over the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 89%. Previous predictions on the stock have been accurate 80% of the time.
The fundamentals for Ciena show mixed results. Earnings grew by 120% in the most recent earnings report, but they had been declining by an average of 1% per year over the last three years.
Sales jumped by 20% in the most recent quarter and have been growing by an average of 8% per year over the last three years. The company’s return on equity is average at 10.4% and so is the profit margin at 9.2%.
CIEN's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CIEN entered a downward trend on May 18, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 154 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 154 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 60 cases where CIEN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 06, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CIEN as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CIEN turned negative on June 07, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
CIEN moved below its 50-day moving average on June 06, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CIEN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CIEN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CIEN advanced for three days, in of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CIEN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CIEN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.225) is normal, around the industry mean (8.828). P/E Ratio (32.258) is within average values for comparable stocks, (57.914). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.151). CIEN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (1.610) is also within normal values, averaging (22.029).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a provider of communication network equipment, associated software and professional services
Industry TelecommunicationsEquipment
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CIEN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CIEN has been loosely correlated with JNPR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CIEN jumps, then JNPR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CIEN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | 100% | +2.10% | ||
| JNPR - CIEN | 62% Loosely correlated | +1.83% | ||
| LITE - CIEN | 62% Loosely correlated | +1.40% | ||
| INFN - CIEN | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.61% | ||
| ADTN - CIEN | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.63% | ||
| MSI - CIEN | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.94% | ||
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