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Feb 04, 2019

Commercial Metals (CMC) hitting upper rail of downward sloped channel

Steel manufacturing company Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) has been trending lower for almost a year since hitting a ten-year high last February. The stock peaked at $26.06 last year and fell as low as $15.11 in December. Like most stocks, Commercial Metals has rallied in the past month. But it is now facing possible resistance at the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel.

The upper rail is connected by the closing highs from November and December while the lower rail connects the lows from June, October and December. It is also worth noting that the upper rail is just above the 50-day moving average. The stock has struggled to break out after moving above the trend line several times in recent months.

The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory like they were in November, just before the stock turned lower.

The company’s fundamentals are mixed with earnings growing by 23% per year over the last three years. Sales have declined by 2% per year over the same time period. The management efficiency and profitability measurements are somewhat low as well with an ROE of 12.2% and a profit margin of 4.7%.

The Tickeron AI Prediction tool did generate a bearish signal on January 30. The signal had a confidence level of 74% for a decline of 4% over the next month. The past signals generated on Commercial Metals have been accurate 79% of the time.

 

 

Related Ticker: CMC

Momentum Indicator for CMC turns positive, indicating new upward trend

CMC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on March 15, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 79 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC just turned positive on March 20, 2024. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMC moved out of overbought territory on March 26, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

CMC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for CMC entered a downward trend on March 19, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.597) is normal, around the industry mean (1.411). P/E Ratio (10.118) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.297). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.434). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.819) is also within normal values, averaging (3.614).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X).

Industry description

The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Steel Industry is 4.44B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 107.02K to 47.65B. NUE holds the highest valuation in this group at 47.65B. The lowest valued company is GCIN at 107.02K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 10%. RMTO experienced the highest price growth at 75%, while HLP experienced the biggest fall at -17%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was -5%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 15% and the average quarterly volume growth was -14%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 28
P/E Growth Rating: 39
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 66
Profit Risk Rating: 67
Seasonality Score: 1 (-100 ... +100)
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CMCDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

a manufacturer of steel reinforcing products

Industry Steel

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Metal Fabrication
Address
6565 North MacArthur Boulevard
Phone
+1 214 689-4300
Employees
13022
Web
https://www.cmc.com
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