Commercial Metals (CMC) hitting upper rail of downward sloped channel
Steel manufacturing company Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) has been trending lower for almost a year since hitting a ten-year high last February. The stock peaked at $26.06 last year and fell as low as $15.11 in December. Like most stocks, Commercial Metals has rallied in the past month. But it is now facing possible resistance at the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel.
The upper rail is connected by the closing highs from November and December while the lower rail connects the lows from June, October and December. It is also worth noting that the upper rail is just above the 50-day moving average. The stock has struggled to break out after moving above the trend line several times in recent months.
The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory like they were in November, just before the stock turned lower.
The company’s fundamentals are mixed with earnings growing by 23% per year over the last three years. Sales have declined by 2% per year over the same time period. The management efficiency and profitability measurements are somewhat low as well with an ROE of 12.2% and a profit margin of 4.7%.
The Tickeron AI Prediction tool did generate a bearish signal on January 30. The signal had a confidence level of 74% for a decline of 4% over the next month. The past signals generated on Commercial Metals have been accurate 79% of the time.
CMC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC turned positive on July 01, 2025. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 26, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMC as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 237 cases where CMC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMC moved out of overbought territory on July 07, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CMC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 01, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.423) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (173.700) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.133). CMC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.058). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.774) is also within normal values, averaging (2.113).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a manufacturer of steel reinforcing products
Industry Steel
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