Commercial Metals (CMC) hitting upper rail of downward sloped channel
Steel manufacturing company Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) has been trending lower for almost a year since hitting a ten-year high last February. The stock peaked at $26.06 last year and fell as low as $15.11 in December. Like most stocks, Commercial Metals has rallied in the past month. But it is now facing possible resistance at the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel.
The upper rail is connected by the closing highs from November and December while the lower rail connects the lows from June, October and December. It is also worth noting that the upper rail is just above the 50-day moving average. The stock has struggled to break out after moving above the trend line several times in recent months.
The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory like they were in November, just before the stock turned lower.
The company’s fundamentals are mixed with earnings growing by 23% per year over the last three years. Sales have declined by 2% per year over the same time period. The management efficiency and profitability measurements are somewhat low as well with an ROE of 12.2% and a profit margin of 4.7%.
The Tickeron AI Prediction tool did generate a bearish signal on January 30. The signal had a confidence level of 74% for a decline of 4% over the next month. The past signals generated on Commercial Metals have been accurate 79% of the time.
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CMC in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026
CMC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 25 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMC moved out of overbought territory on August 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 70 cases where CMC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMC as a result. In 52 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMC turned negative on September 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
The 50-day moving average for CMC moved below the 200-day moving average on August 24, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for CMC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +2.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in 219 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
CMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 204 of 296 cases where CMC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.640) is normal, around the industry mean (3.291). P/E Ratio (12.698) is within average values for comparable stocks, (31.427). CMC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.873). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.021) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.858) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.144).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a manufacturer of steel reinforcing products
Industry MetalFabrication
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