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Feb 04, 2019

Commercial Metals (CMC) hitting upper rail of downward sloped channel

Steel manufacturing company Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) has been trending lower for almost a year since hitting a ten-year high last February. The stock peaked at $26.06 last year and fell as low as $15.11 in December. Like most stocks, Commercial Metals has rallied in the past month. But it is now facing possible resistance at the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel.

The upper rail is connected by the closing highs from November and December while the lower rail connects the lows from June, October and December. It is also worth noting that the upper rail is just above the 50-day moving average. The stock has struggled to break out after moving above the trend line several times in recent months.

The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory like they were in November, just before the stock turned lower.

The company’s fundamentals are mixed with earnings growing by 23% per year over the last three years. Sales have declined by 2% per year over the same time period. The management efficiency and profitability measurements are somewhat low as well with an ROE of 12.2% and a profit margin of 4.7%.

The Tickeron AI Prediction tool did generate a bearish signal on January 30. The signal had a confidence level of 74% for a decline of 4% over the next month. The past signals generated on Commercial Metals have been accurate 79% of the time.

 

 

Related Ticker: CMC

CMC in -1.32% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on July 19, 2024

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CMC declined for three days, in of 281 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMC moved out of overbought territory on July 19, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

CMC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 11, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMC as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC just turned positive on June 21, 2024. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

CMC moved above its 50-day moving average on July 11, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for CMC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 278 cases where CMC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 82%.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.555) is normal, around the industry mean (1.220). P/E Ratio (11.975) is within average values for comparable stocks, (29.903). CMC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.977). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.833) is also within normal values, averaging (1.180).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF).

Industry description

The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Steel Industry is 5.43B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 107.02K to 38.96B. NUE holds the highest valuation in this group at 38.96B. The lowest valued company is GCIN at 107.02K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 2%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7%. STZHF experienced the highest price growth at 77%, while KIROY experienced the biggest fall at -12%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was 19%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -24% and the average quarterly volume growth was -9%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 21
P/E Growth Rating: 36
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 69
Profit Risk Rating: 68
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a manufacturer of steel reinforcing products

Industry Steel

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Metal Fabrication
Address
6565 North MacArthur Boulevard
Phone
+1 214 689-4300
Employees
13022
Web
https://www.cmc.com
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