Consumer Discretionary ETF Hitting Downward Sloped Trend Line as Earnings Season Kicks Off
Stocks have bounce back nicely since the selloff on Christmas Eve. All 10 of the main sectors have gained ground during this period, and the S&P is up 10.43% from the close on December 24 through the close on January 11. The energy sector has led the way during this rally, but the consumer discretionary sector has the second biggest gain at 13.7% over the 13 trading days in question.
While the rally has likely made investors more comfortable, they might not want to get too comfortable as some of the sector ETFs and index ETFs are starting to hit potential resistance points. One sector ETF that is hitting a possible resistance point is the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY).
The ETF has jumped from down around the $92 level to close at $104.58 on Friday. This puts the XLY in contact with a downward sloped trend line that connects the highs from October and December.
It should also be noted that the XLY is overbought based on the daily stochastic readings and the indicators just made a bearish crossover.
The ETF hitting the trend line at this time is notable as earnings season kicks off this week and three of the top six holdings in the XLY will be reporting quarterly results between now and the end of January. These earnings reports could serve to help the XLY break out of the downward trend or they could be the catalyst that causes it to resume the downward trend.
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VCR's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VCR turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where VCR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VCR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 30 of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 50 of 58 cases where VCR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +1.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VCR advanced for three days, in 270 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
VCR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
VCR moved below its 50-day moving average on August 31, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VCR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for VCR moved below the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VCR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator for VCR entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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